Stantec (STN): What to Watch Ahead of Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of $0.95, a 17.3% year-over-year increase.
- Consensus revenue forecast stands at $1.26 billion, up 16.2% from the prior year.
- Stantec's FY 2025 delivered record $6.5 billion net revenue, with 5.0% organic growth and $8.6 billion backlog.
- Company guides for 8.5%-11.5% net revenue growth in 2026, with mid- to high-single-digit organic growth.
- Investors watching backlog trends, organic growth in Water and Buildings, and adjusted EBITDA margins.
- Q1 results due after market close on May 13, 2026, with conference call on May 14.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Stantec Inc. (STN), a global leader in sustainable engineering, architecture, and environmental services, is set to report its first quarter 2026 earnings after markets close today, May 13. From what I see, this update carries significant weight as the first look into performance since FY 2025's standout results, which included $6.5 billion in net revenue and a 17.6% adjusted EBITDA margin. The $8.6 billion backlog offers about 13 months of visibility, and I'm watching closely to see if it confirms the organic growth trajectory amid rising infrastructure spending and energy transition needs. Prior quarters like Q1 2025, with its 13.3% revenue increase and record backlog, highlight the momentum in Water and Buildings sectors. A beat on estimates here could solidify confidence in the 2026 outlook, while any misses might point to project delays or margin pressures in this competitive space.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street is looking for solid Q1 numbers, with consensus EPS at $0.95—a 17.3% improvement from Q1 2025's $0.81 GAAP diluted EPS (adjusted $1.16). Revenue estimates sit at $1.26 billion, up 16.2% year-over-year, fueled by organic expansion and acquisitions. In CAD terms, analysts project C$1.29 EPS across 11 estimates. Key items to note include the contract backlog, which stood at $7.9 billion in Q1 2025 (up 12.8% overall, 7.5% organically), and days sales outstanding (DSO), with a target below 80 days. The company's 2026 guidance points to 8.5%-11.5% net revenue growth, with mid- to high-single-digit organic growth across regions.
Stantec has a track record of beating EPS estimates, as seen in Q4 2025 ($0.90 vs. $0.87 expected) and Q1 2025. Stock reactions have varied, with beats often driving gains depending on market sentiment. One thing that stands out is the focus on Water sector organic growth (10.7% in FY 2025), adjusted EBITDA margins targeting 17%-18%, and integration from the Page acquisition.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into these earnings feels cautiously optimistic, supported by FY 2025 records and the 2026 guidance. STN shares have dipped about 4% lately, trading near 52-week lows around $83-$87 amid broader industrials weakness. Historical reactions show some volatility: the Q4 2025 EPS beat prompted modest moves, while revenue shortfalls pulled shares lower. Risks on my radar include potential U.S. public sector delays, FX fluctuations (CAD/USD), and net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.5x (within the 1.0x-2.0x target). An EPS or revenue beat paired with a strong backlog update could trigger a rebound, but weakness in organic growth might add downward pressure.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my analysis, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to efficiently scan stocks like STN against peers using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It helps me quickly identify opportunities in industrials by filtering on metrics like backlog growth proxies or margin trends. This tool has become a key part of my process for spotting breakout candidates amid earnings season.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Stantec's 2026 guidance points to continued expansion, with 8.5%-11.5% net revenue growth and mid- to high-single-digit organic rates across U.S., Canada, and Global segments. This follows FY 2025's 5.0% organic growth, especially strong in Water (10.7%) and bolstered by the Page acquisition in Buildings. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare STN to industry peers.
One area I'll be tracking is the Q1 backlog from the $8.6 billion FY 2025 end, ideally holding 12-13 months of coverage. Visibility into organic growth in clean energy, infrastructure resilience, and environmental services will be telling, given global sustainability trends.
Margins are another focus: the 17.6% adjusted EBITDA in FY 2025 met targets ahead of schedule, so sustained 17%-18% levels through execution and cost discipline will matter. Stable DSO under 80 days aids cash flow, and leverage within 1.0x-2.0x supports measured M&A.
Looking broader, U.S. infrastructure funding, Canadian project wins, and Global AMP 8 water contracts could provide tailwinds, alongside energy transition and biodiversity demand—offset by procurement cycles and economic risks. In my view, these elements will shape the post-earnings path.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
STN in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for STN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on STN as a result. In 56 of 101 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for STN turned negative on August 31, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
STN moved below its 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator for STN entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STN advanced for three days, in 180 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
STN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.222) is normal, around the industry mean (16.441). P/E Ratio (21.959) is within average values for comparable stocks, (203.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.750) is also within normal values, averaging (3.522). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.304) is also within normal values, averaging (2.926).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. STN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a provider of engineering, architecture, and related professional services
Industry EngineeringConstruction
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