GET DAILY SIGNALSStoneCo (STNE) Q3 2026 Earnings: Watching for Credit Momentum Amid Persistent Rates
Key Takeaways
- StoneCo (STNE) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results, covering the three months ended September 30, 2026, around mid-November 2026.
- The company reports in Brazilian reais (BRL); in the prior quarter (Q2 2026), revenue reached R$3.59 billion (up 2.5% year over year) and adjusted basic earnings per share (EPS) came in at R$2.40 (up 8.6% year over year).
- Full-year 2026 guidance targets adjusted gross profit of R$6.6–7.0 billion and adjusted basic EPS of R$10.8–11.4, with management signaling it is focused on the lower end of those ranges.
- Higher-for-longer interest rates are a central headwind: management has said each 100-basis-point move in Brazil's benchmark Selic rate shifts pre-tax results by roughly R$200–250 million.
- Investors will watch total payment volume (TPV), credit-portfolio quality, cost of risk, and retail deposit momentum as the most important operating signals.
- For deeper coverage of StoneCo's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the dedicated STNE pages.
- To discover other trade ideas across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Earnings Context and Its Significance
StoneCo (STNE), a leading Brazilian financial-technology company serving small and medium-sized merchants, reports at a time when its strategic shift is meeting a tougher macro environment. The company has repositioned itself as the bank for entrepreneurs, combining payments, banking, and credit in one relationship. That approach is showing results on the balance sheet—retail deposits and the credit portfolio have expanded quickly—but it has also brought higher provisions for loan losses. With Brazil's benchmark Selic rate remaining elevated longer than management anticipated when setting 2026 guidance, this earnings release will show whether accelerating credit revenue can offset financing pressure and help meet full-year profit targets. I checked the broader sector context using Tickeron's AI Screener to see how STNE compares on key fundamentals.
What to Expect from the Numbers
StoneCo reports in Brazilian reais, so attention stays on adjusted operating metrics. For the third quarter of 2026, the focus is on whether the company can maintain the trends seen in Q2 2026, when revenue rose 2.5% year over year to R$3.59 billion and adjusted basic EPS grew 8.6% to R$2.40. Adjusted gross profit was roughly flat year over year at R$1.56 billion, as higher provisions for loan losses largely offset revenue gains and lower funding costs.
Key items to track include TPV, which management noted re-accelerated in Q2 as retention efforts took hold; retail deposits, which reached R$10.8 billion (up 22% year over year); and the credit portfolio, which roughly doubled year over year to R$3.8 billion. On the risk side, the cost of risk stood at 21.5% in Q2, with non-performing loans trending higher. The company has kept its full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted gross profit of R$6.6–7.0 billion and adjusted basic EPS of R$10.8–11.4, while noting it is aiming toward the lower end given the tougher rate backdrop.
Market Sentiment Ahead of the Report
Investor sentiment into StoneCo's Q3 2026 results is cautious yet attentive. The stock has faced pressure from the higher-for-longer Selic rate, which lifts funding costs and tempers TPV growth. Management has highlighted a more challenging environment than expected at the start of the year and stressed execution toward the lower end of guidance. At the same time, signs of progress—an acceleration in TPV, a fast-growing credit book, and share buybacks—offer reasons to look for stabilization. The report will be evaluated on whether credit momentum and cost control can counter the interest-rate impact without further weakening in asset quality. From what I see, the balance between growth initiatives and risk management will be central.
Key Factors to Watch Going Forward
The path of Brazil's Selic rate stands out as the primary variable after this report. Because StoneCo's funding and lending economics are closely linked to benchmark rates, any indication on monetary policy will directly affect 2026 guidance. Management has already noted that the current rate environment is more difficult than planned, so updates to full-year expectations will be important.
Credit quality deserves equal attention. StoneCo has expanded its credit portfolio aggressively, supporting revenue but also increasing loan-loss provisions. Watch the cost of risk, non-performing loans, coverage ratios, and the performance of government-backed lending programs, which offer lower yields but lower risk as well.
TPV growth and client retention also merit close monitoring. StoneCo has worked to reduce merchant churn and re-accelerate payment volumes after softer same-store sales among clients. Progress here will indicate whether the core payments business can stabilize even as emphasis shifts toward banking and credit.
Exploring Market Opportunities with AI Tools
When preparing for earnings like this one, I often turn to Tickeron's AI tools to scan for comparable names and pattern signals across the fintech space. The AI Screener, in particular, helps surface candidates based on technical and fundamental filters, which can complement traditional research ahead of reports. It is a practical addition to the workflow for identifying related opportunities without replacing core analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
STNE's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for STNE moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 26 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 60 cases where STNE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +3.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STNE advanced for three days, in 223 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
STNE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on STNE as a result. In 78 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for STNE turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
STNE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STNE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STNE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.193) is normal, around the industry mean (16.275). P/E Ratio (0.558) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.369). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.620) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (1.348) settles around the average of (0.430) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.948) is also within normal values, averaging (103.897).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. STNE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STNE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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a financial technology solutions provider
Industry ComputerCommunications
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