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published in Blogs
Apr 05, 2019

Strong fundamentals, an upward trend, and a bullish signal from Tickeron for Splunk

Application software firm Splunk (Nasdaq: SPLK) has several positive attributes going for it right now. The stock has been a strong performer in the past few years and it has rallied nicely from its low in November. A trend channel has developed that defines the different cycles within the overall trend and the stock just hit the lower rail of the channel last week.

A slight pullback in the first part of March took the oscillators out of overbought territory and down into oversold territory and the stock experienced a quick rally. Another brief pullback caused the stochastic readings to fall again and now they have performed a bullish crossover and appear to be heading higher.

The second positive attribute Splunk has going for it is a bullish signal from the Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool. The signal was generated on March 29 and it had a confidence level of 89%. Previous predictions from the tool on Splunk have been accurate 60% of the time. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month.

Yet another positive attribute for Splunk is the fundamental performance of the company. The company has seen earnings grow at an average rate of 110% over the last three years. The most recent earnings report showed EPS growth of 41% on a year over year basis.

Sales have increased by an average of 38% per year over the last three years and they increased by 35% in the most recent quarter.

The company boasts a return on equity of 17.4% and a profit margin of 14.7%. It is also worth mentioning that the company doesn’t have any long-term debt.

With all of these positive attributes, Splunk certainly looks poised for a rally, but we all know that there are no guarantees when it comes to investing.

Related Ticker: SPLK

SPLK in +0.10% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on March 13, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SPLK advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 258 cases where SPLK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPLK turned negative on March 07, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SPLK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPLK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (35.714) is normal, around the industry mean (28.904). P/E Ratio (103.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (147.473). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.808) is also within normal values, averaging (2.802). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.527) is also within normal values, averaging (77.764).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.56B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.19T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.19T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. NYWKD experienced the highest price growth at 441%, while ETAO experienced the biggest fall at -91%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -66%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -51% and the average quarterly volume growth was -38%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 77
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 3 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: APPLICATION SOFTWARE
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

a provider of information technology services

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
270 Brannan Street
Phone
+1 415 848-8400
Employees
8000
Web
https://www.splunk.com
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