Target’s (TGT, $77.15) Q4 results beat estimates, 2019 also looks bright
Minneapolis-based retailer, Target, delivered estimate-beating earnings during the critical holiday period or the fiscal fourth quarter, resulting its shares surging by 4% on Tuesday. The retailer’s in-house brands and easy delivery options are factors that helped the company drive sales and helped it achieve considerable same-store sales growth.
The company’s adjusted EPS for the quarter stood at $1.53 versus an estimate of $1.52; revenue came at $22.98 billion versus an estimate of $22.96 billion; and same store sales growth rose by 5.3% versus an expected 5.1%.
On an unadjusted basis, net income fell 26.5% to $799 million or $1.52 a share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $1.99 a share, the period the previous year. Revenue was about flat at $23 billion.
Interestingly, Target’s online sales for the quarter grew by 31% versus the brick-and-mortar store sales growth of 2.9%, and contributed nearly 2.4% points to the overall same-store sales growth during the quarter. For the entire 2018, Target’s e-commerce grew by 36%.
Looking ahead to 2019, the company expects a low-to-mid single-digit increase in same-store sales, and a mid-single digit increase in net income. As opposed to estimates of $5.61 earnings per share, the company is calling for adjusted earnings of between $5.75 and $6.05 per share.
To stay competitive, Target has been investing on in-house brands and will soon launch three new lingerie and sleepwear brands to rival Victoria’s Secret. Further, it is also signing deals with other fashion brands whose exclusive merchandise can be sold from within Target stores. Vineyards Vines is a case-in-point.
It is also competing with Amazon (AMZN) by inviting select speciality brands and national retailers to sell their merchandise on its website via a third party marketplace called Target+. This strategy may be useful in relieving pressure on profit margins as all shipping costs could be passed on to the third party sellers.
TGT in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on June 09, 2025
The 10-day moving average for TGT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 09, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 56 cases where TGT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TGT just turned positive on June 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where TGT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TGT moved above its 50-day moving average on June 23, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGT advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 25, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TGT as a result. In of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TGT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.017) is normal, around the industry mean (8.496). P/E Ratio (10.904) is within average values for comparable stocks, (33.721). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.365) is also within normal values, averaging (2.928). TGT has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.045) as compared to the industry average of (0.023). P/S Ratio (0.431) is also within normal values, averaging (1.589).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TGT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TGT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock worse than average.
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a department and discount store
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