Target’s (TGT, $77.15) Q4 results beat estimates, 2019 also looks bright
Minneapolis-based retailer, Target, delivered estimate-beating earnings during the critical holiday period or the fiscal fourth quarter, resulting its shares surging by 4% on Tuesday. The retailer’s in-house brands and easy delivery options are factors that helped the company drive sales and helped it achieve considerable same-store sales growth.
The company’s adjusted EPS for the quarter stood at $1.53 versus an estimate of $1.52; revenue came at $22.98 billion versus an estimate of $22.96 billion; and same store sales growth rose by 5.3% versus an expected 5.1%.
On an unadjusted basis, net income fell 26.5% to $799 million or $1.52 a share, compared to $1.1 billion, or $1.99 a share, the period the previous year. Revenue was about flat at $23 billion.
Interestingly, Target’s online sales for the quarter grew by 31% versus the brick-and-mortar store sales growth of 2.9%, and contributed nearly 2.4% points to the overall same-store sales growth during the quarter. For the entire 2018, Target’s e-commerce grew by 36%.
Looking ahead to 2019, the company expects a low-to-mid single-digit increase in same-store sales, and a mid-single digit increase in net income. As opposed to estimates of $5.61 earnings per share, the company is calling for adjusted earnings of between $5.75 and $6.05 per share.
To stay competitive, Target has been investing on in-house brands and will soon launch three new lingerie and sleepwear brands to rival Victoria’s Secret. Further, it is also signing deals with other fashion brands whose exclusive merchandise can be sold from within Target stores. Vineyards Vines is a case-in-point.
It is also competing with Amazon (AMZN) by inviting select speciality brands and national retailers to sell their merchandise on its website via a third party marketplace called Target+. This strategy may be useful in relieving pressure on profit margins as all shipping costs could be passed on to the third party sellers.
TGT sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On September 18, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TGT moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 40 of the 57 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +0.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGT advanced for three days, in 201 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
TGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 212 cases where TGT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TGT as a result. In 58 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TGT turned negative on August 31, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.
TGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TGT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.034) is normal, around the industry mean (7.191). P/E Ratio (16.435) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.397). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.972) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). TGT has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.654) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TGT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock worse than average.
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a department and discount store
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