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Mar 05, 2019
Target (TGT, $72.67) beats fiscal Q4 earnings & revenue expectations on solid same-store sales growth

Target (TGT, $72.67) beats fiscal Q4 earnings & revenue expectations on solid same-store sales growth

Target Corp. reported higher-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter, on the back of strong same-store sales growth and a successful holiday season.

The retail giant’s earnings-per-share for the three months ending on February 2 increased +11.7% year-over-year to $1.53, beating analysts’ estimates by a penny (based on The Street consensus forecast). Group sales of $22.977 billion for the quarter was higher compared to analysts’ expected $22.91 billion. Growth in same-store sales came in at +5.3%, exceeding analysts’ estimates of +5%.

Earlier this year, Target had indicated that it experienced the best holiday sales since 2005. Same store sales for the two months ending in December increased +5.7%, which was a faster pace compared to 3.4% of the same period last year.

For the full year 2019, Target is forecasts earnings in the range of $5.75 to $6.05 per share, which is above the consensus estimate of $5.61 per share.

Related Ticker: TGT

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


TGT sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory

On September 18, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for TGT moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 40 of the 57 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 70%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a +0.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGT advanced for three days, in 201 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.

TGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 212 cases where TGT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 66%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TGT as a result. In 58 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TGT turned negative on August 31, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.

TGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TGT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.034) is normal, around the industry mean (7.191). P/E Ratio (16.435) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.397). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.972) is also within normal values, averaging (2.171). TGT has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.029) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.654) is also within normal values, averaging (1.008).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TGT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 158B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 8.91K to 862.64B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 862.64B. The lowest valued company is BIGGQ at 8.91K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. OLLI experienced the highest price growth at 2%, while DG experienced the biggest fall at -4%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 14% and the average quarterly volume growth was -43%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 77
P/E Growth Rating: 51
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 48
Profit Risk Rating: 63
Seasonality Score: 53 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a department and discount store

Industry DiscountStores

Industry
Specialty Stores
Address
1000 Nicollet Mall
Phone
+1 612 304-6073
Employees
415000
Web
https://corporate.target.com
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