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Aug 28, 2023

Target ($TGT) Faces a Sharp 7.18% Decline: Unpacking the Weekly Drop

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📉 Target (TGT) Takes a Dive: Analyzing the Week's Top Loser 📉

Intro: A surprising turn of events in the Discount Stores Industry this week! Target (TGT, $121.79) witnessed a steep decline of -7.18%, ranking it among the week's top losers. But what's behind this drop, and how does the broader industry look? Let's dive in!

Weekly Recap: 📊 From the 16 stocks scrutinized in the Discount Stores Industry between 8/18/2023 and 8/25/2023, a concerning 88.89% (14 stocks) trended downwards, with only 11.11% (2 stocks) showing an uptrend.

Earnings and Dividends: 💹 Target's earnings report on August 16th painted a rosy picture, with earnings per share at $1.80, surpassing the expected $1.47. Yet, with its massive 7.28M shares, its market cap stands robust at $56.22B. 💰 Dividend-watchers, take note! A dividend of $1.10 per share has been announced, set to be paid on the record date of September 10, 2023. This comes on the heels of the previous dividend of $1.08 paid in June.

Industry Titans: 🏢 When talking discount giants, names like Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Big Lots (BIG) stand tall. These companies have redefined value shopping, offering a diverse range of products at pocket-friendly prices.

Industry Snapshot: Discount stores have carved a niche by offering massive discounts on a wide array of retail products. Catering mainly to price-sensitive consumers and low-income households, these businesses thrive on competitive pricing, optimal locations, and effective marketing. They often shine during financial downturns, as shoppers hunt for bargains.

Market Cap Dynamics: 📈 The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry hovers around $61.86B. Walmart (WMT) takes the crown with a staggering $424.98B, whereas TUEMQ settles as the underdog at $1.78K.

Pricing and Volume: 📉 The industry saw an average weekly price decline of -3%. Monthly and quarterly changes were -5% and 3%, respectively. BMRPF led the growth chart at 5%, while BIG took the hardest hit at -16%. 🔊 In terms of volume, the weekly average across all stocks dropped by -6%. However, monthly and quarterly volume surged by 24% and 16% respectively.

Analyzing the Fundamentals: For those into the nitty-gritty:

  • Valuation Rating: 45
  • P/E Growth Rating: 51
  • Price Growth Rating: 51
  • SMR Rating: 40
  • Profit Risk Rating: 44
  • Seasonality Score: -10 (Scale: -100 to +100)

Closing Thoughts: Despite its recent setback, Target's strong fundamentals and dividend announcement provide some solace to its investors. As with all investments, maintaining a diversified portfolio and monitoring industry trends can offer insights and mitigate risks.

 

Related Ticker: TGT

TGT sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

TGT saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 18, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 41 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 12, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TGT as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TGT moved below its 50-day moving average on August 21, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for TGT entered a downward trend on September 22, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGT advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.335) is normal, around the industry mean (12.886). P/E Ratio (15.456) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.925). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.018) is also within normal values, averaging (2.021). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.482) is also within normal values, averaging (1.162).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TGT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TGT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 51, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST), Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG), Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Big Lots (NYSE:BIG).

Industry description

Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Discount Stores Industry is 62.31B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.78K to 436.98B. WMT holds the highest valuation in this group at 436.98B. The lowest valued company is TUEMQ at 1.78K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 1%. WMMVY experienced the highest price growth at 5%, while TGT experienced the biggest fall at -8%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Discount Stores Industry was -40%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 1% and the average quarterly volume growth was 20%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 44
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 39
Profit Risk Rating: 50
Seasonality Score: -19 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a department and discount store

Industry DiscountStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Specialty Stores
Address
1000 Nicollet Mall
Phone
+1 612 304-6073
Employees
440000
Web
https://corporate.target.com
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TGT and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGT has been loosely correlated with BIG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TGT jumps, then BIG could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TGT
1D Price
Change %
TGT100%
-4.02%
BIG - TGT
48%
Loosely correlated
-2.18%
DLTR - TGT
43%
Loosely correlated
-0.95%
OLLI - TGT
43%
Loosely correlated
+1.73%
COST - TGT
42%
Loosely correlated
+0.63%
WMT - TGT
38%
Loosely correlated
+0.27%
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