Terex Corporation (TEX) Holds Near $69.83 After -2.8% Monthly Move
Key Takeaways
- Terex shares traded near $69.83 as of late July 2026, reflecting a modest decline of approximately 2.8% over the trailing 30-day period amid broader industrial sector volatility.
- The company's Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.98 surpassed consensus estimates by 25.6%, supported by 41% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.73 billion following the REV Group merger.
- A record $7.1 billion backlog and 109% book-to-bill ratio provide strong forward visibility across all four operating segments.
- Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $79.45, implying meaningful upside from recent trading levels.
- Q2 2026 earnings, scheduled for release on July 30, represent a near-term catalyst closely watched by investors.
Recent Price Action and Market Snapshot
Terex Corporation (TEX) shares have shown notable intra-range volatility over the past 30 days, trading between a low of $62.92 and a high of $74.58 before settling near $69.83. The stock’s 50-day moving average of approximately $64.48 and 200-day moving average of $62.89 indicate the price remains above both intermediate and longer-term trend benchmarks. With a beta of 1.49, TEX has historically demonstrated above-average sensitivity to broader market swings, and the recent period has been no exception. Institutional ownership remains exceptionally high at 92.88%, with notable accumulation by entities including the Swiss National Bank, which boosted its stake by 73.3% in the first quarter, and Cooper Creek Partners Management, which initiated a $39 million position. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Terex’s Business Model and Competitive Position
Terex Corporation is a global manufacturer of specialized equipment serving essential industries including construction, infrastructure, emergency services, waste and recycling, utilities, and shipping logistics. The company operates through four segments: Environmental Solutions (refuse collection, utility equipment), Materials Processing (crushers, screens, washing systems under brands like Powerscreen), Aerials (Genie-branded aerial work platforms and telehandlers), and the newly formed Specialty Vehicles segment following the February 2026 merger with REV Group, which added fire trucks, ambulances, and recreational vehicles to the portfolio. Headquartered in Westport, Connecticut, Terex generates approximately 80% of its pro forma revenue in North America, with roughly 85% of products sold in the U.S. manufactured domestically — a structural advantage in an environment of elevated trade tariffs. The company’s diversified end-market exposure and $7.1 billion backlog position it as a key beneficiary of ongoing infrastructure spending and utility grid modernization trends.
Recent Developments and Analyst Views
Several factors have shaped Terex’s recent stock performance. The company delivered a strong Q1 2026 earnings beat on May 1, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.98 versus a $0.78 consensus estimate, while revenue surged 41.1% to $1.73 billion, partly reflecting the first two months of contribution from the Specialty Vehicles segment. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance targeting sales of $7.5 billion to $8.1 billion and EPS of $4.50 to $5.00. On the analyst front, Truist Financial raised its price target to $92 in early July, while Citigroup lifted its target to $80 and DA Davidson initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and an $81 target. Barclays also raised its target — albeit more conservatively — to $70 with an Overweight rating. Terex declared a quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share in early July, maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 32.5%. The stock experienced a sharp but brief selloff in mid-July, touching $62.92, before rebounding amid broad-based institutional buying interest and positioning ahead of the July 30 Q2 earnings release, where consensus estimates call for EPS of $1.25 on revenue of $2.14 billion. From what I see, the institutional flows here are worth monitoring closely.
2026 Outlook and Key Variables to Watch
Looking ahead, Terex’s trajectory hinges on several key variables. The July 30 Q2 earnings release will provide critical insight into whether the REV integration continues tracking ahead of schedule and whether the $28 million in targeted synergies for 2026 remains on pace. Investors should monitor margin trends in the Aerials segment, which faced tariff-related headwinds and seasonal softness in Q1 but carries a $1 billion backlog and a 132% book-to-bill ratio that suggests improving profitability in the second half. Materials Processing momentum — where Q1 EBITDA margins expanded 310 basis points to 15% — represents another area of focus. Macroeconomic risks include potential shifts in infrastructure spending policy, steel and component tariff developments, and interest rate sensitivity in end markets such as construction and rental equipment. With a forward P/E of roughly 33 and the stock trading below its consensus analyst target, the key question for investors is whether execution on the REV integration and sustained backlog conversion can offset tariff pressures and broader cyclical uncertainties. I’m watching this closely as the numbers develop.
Enhancing Analysis with Tickeron’s AI Tools
When evaluating setups like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to test systematic approaches alongside my own fundamental work. The platform surfaces top-performing bots with transparent metrics on win rates and trade histories, which helps me cross-check conviction levels before earnings events. It’s become a useful part of my routine for stocks with strong backlogs and institutional interest.
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Contributor
Serhii Bondarenko is an AI-focused trading strategist and financial markets analyst specializing in the development and application of AI trading bots and autonomous trading agents. His work combines technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and quantitative research to identify market patterns, forecast price movements, and analyze liquidity, volatility, and correlations across global stock markets. Serhii actively publishes market insights, forecasts, and trading frameworks on platforms such as Investing.com and Finextra, with a strong focus on AI-driven decision-making and next-generation algorithmic trading. His research aims to bridge the gap between traditional trading methodologies and advanced artificial intelligence, helping traders and investors navigate complex and rapidly evolving market conditions.
TEX in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on August 18, 2026
TEX moved below its 50-day moving average on August 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TEX as a result. In 52 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TEX turned negative on August 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
The 10-day moving average for TEX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TEX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for TEX entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TEX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TEX advanced for three days, in 217 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
TEX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.370) is normal, around the industry mean (2.611). P/E Ratio (28.249) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.265). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.104) is also within normal values, averaging (1.752). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.755) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TEX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TEX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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