TESLA should surprise everyone today, and how to trade it
TESLA should surprise everyone today, and how to trade it
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its first‑quarter 2025 earnings after the market close on April 22, with results posted at 4:07 PM ET followed by an earnings call at 5:30 PM ET Tesla Investor Relations. After missing estimates in Q4, all eyes are on whether Tesla can deliver a positive surprise.
What to Expect Today
Watch real‑time guidance updates and any changes in delivery or margin guidance. A clear, confident outlook could swing the stock higher despite mixed delivery trends.
Bottom Line: With estimates down and execution improvements possible, Tesla has the potential to surprise everyone today—but risks remain. Whether you’re a bull or a bear, be ready for a volatile reaction as the market digests both the numbers and management’s outlook.
How We Trade TSLA
TSLA / TSDD - AI Trading Bot Double Agent
BUY LONG: Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. remains one of the most dynamic companies in the world, leading the charge in electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, energy generation, and storage solutions. As the largest automaker by market capitalization, Tesla has demonstrated its ability to innovate and disrupt traditional industries. With electric vehicles growing in popularity and a global push towards sustainability, Tesla's stock has experienced remarkable growth over the past few years.
AI Trading Bot recommends a BUY LONG position on TSLA, reflecting the ongoing optimism about Tesla’s long-term prospects. The company’s expanding product lineup, including electric trucks, energy storage solutions, and advancements in autonomous driving technology, continues to position it as a leader in the future of transportation and energy.
BUY LONG AS A HEDGE: TSDD (GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF)
In conjunction with the long position in TSLA, the AI Trading Bot also recommends buying TSDD, the GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF. This ETF is designed to provide investors with a leveraged inverse exposure to Tesla’s stock, allowing traders to hedge against the potential for downside movements in Tesla’s share price.
Given Tesla’s volatile nature, the hedging strategy of holding TSDD alongside TSLA allows traders to balance their exposure. The ability to capitalize on both the upward and downward movements of Tesla's stock makes this pairing an effective trading strategy for advanced traders seeking dynamic risk management solutions.
Suitability of the Double Agent Trading Bot
The Double Agent Trading Bot is an advanced trading algorithm designed to optimize trading strategies through a dual-approach model. The bot’s design integrates pattern trading across multiple timeframes, including H1 (hourly), M30 (30-minute), and H4 (4-hour), alongside proprietary algorithms based on the Daily timeframe. This multi-timeframe approach enables the bot to identify both short-term and long-term trends, allowing for more accurate and timely trade entries and exits.
One of the key features of the Double Agent bot is its flexibility in managing multiple open trades simultaneously. The system is capable of managing up to six open trades at once, making it suitable for traders of varying experience levels, including beginners. The bot’s swing trading capabilities allow it to leverage intraday patterns for entry signals while using the Daily timeframe for exits, ensuring that traders have sufficient time to react to market movements and adjust their positions accordingly.
Last Quarter Recap
- Reported (Jan 29): EPS $0.73 vs. estimate $0.75 (miss)
- Shares Outstanding: 48.26 M
- Market Cap: $559.9 B
Q4’s EPS shortfall highlighted margin pressures and softer demand, but the bar for Q1 is lower, setting the stage for upside if execution holds.
What Analysts Expect
- Revenue: $21.81 B (consensus)
- EPS: $0.43 (consensus)
Both metrics have trended lower as delivery woes weighed on forecasts. Should Tesla exceed these modest estimates, it could trigger a rally.
Key Areas to Watch
- Revenue & EPS vs. Estimates
- A beat on either line could spark optimism, especially after Q4’s miss.
- A beat on either line could spark optimism, especially after Q4’s miss.
- Vehicle Deliveries
- Q1 deliveries came in at 336,681 units, down from expectations of ~380,000 units, with Europe notably soft. Management’s commentary on demand will be critical.
- Q1 deliveries came in at 336,681 units, down from expectations of ~380,000 units, with Europe notably soft. Management’s commentary on demand will be critical.
- Margin Performance
- Gross margins (ex‑credits) have been under scrutiny as Tesla ramps new factories. Any stabilizing or improvement would reassure investors.
- Gross margins (ex‑credits) have been under scrutiny as Tesla ramps new factories. Any stabilizing or improvement would reassure investors.
- Full Self‑Driving (FSD) & Robotics
- Updates on FSD beta rollout and progress on the Optimus humanoid robot could influence long‑term growth perceptions.
- Updates on FSD beta rollout and progress on the Optimus humanoid robot could influence long‑term growth perceptions.
- CEO Commentary
- Elon Musk’s tone on production bottlenecks, political distractions, and strategy will move the needle. After Q4, analysts warned Musk’s “brand damage” was significant.
- Elon Musk’s tone on production bottlenecks, political distractions, and strategy will move the needle. After Q4, analysts warned Musk’s “brand damage” was significant.
- 2025 Guidance
- Tesla’s outlook for deliveries, capex, and new product introductions will shape sentiment for the next three quarters.
- Tesla’s outlook for deliveries, capex, and new product introductions will shape sentiment for the next three quarters.
Bullish Case: A Positive Surprise
- Lower Bar: Consensus estimates have been cut meaningfully since year‑end, opening the door for beats.
- Cost Controls: If raw‑material and logistics costs ease, Tesla could outperform on the bottom line despite softer deliveries.
- New Margin Streams: Energy storage and software subscriptions (FSD) offer high‑margin revenue streams that could surprise to the upside.
Bearish Concerns: Continued Pressures
- Weak Fundamentals: Barclays warns of margin pressure and cut its price target to $275.
- Competition & Demand: Rising EV offerings from BYD and legacy automakers, plus lingering macro headwinds, may keep volume growth tepid.
- Political Involvement: Musk’s external activities continue to draw scrutiny, with some analysts citing “unprecedented brand damage”.
Momentum Indicator for TSLA turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TSLA saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on April 25, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 77 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 77 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TSLA just turned positive on April 23, 2025. Looking at past instances where TSLA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TSLA moved above its 50-day moving average on April 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSLA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 02, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 275 cases where TSLA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for TSLA moved below the 200-day moving average on April 14, 2025. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSLA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TSLA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.905) is normal, around the industry mean (6.217). P/E Ratio (40.726) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.826). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.067) is also within normal values, averaging (5.723). TSLA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (6.305) is also within normal values, averaging (78.608).
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General Information
a manufacturer of electric sports cars
Industry MotorVehicles