Tesla (TSLA, $390.92) "Battery Day" less than satisfactory; shares plunge -$20 billion in 2 hours

Tesla  much-hyped “Battery Day” set lofty targets but left much to be desired on near-term execution. 

The electric  carmaker’s  market cap dropped $20 billion in just two hours after trading closed Tuesday, as Musk and other Tesla executives virtually and in person rolled out their new battery plans. While some analysts praised Tesla’s impressive technology for making proprietary Tesla batteries that could make electric cars competitive with mass market, petroleum-fueled cars, its capacity and cost targets, others were skeptical about Musk’s promises and questioned the three-year timeline he outlined for delivering the promised technology breakthroughs. Musk admitted that some of Tesla’s technology plans is proving “insanely difficult” to produce at high volume.

Investors were expecting Musk to announce the development of a “million mile” battery good for 10 years or more, and a specific cost-reduction target  that would drop the price of an electric vehicle below that of a gasoline car. However, they were disappointed as neither of those two announcements were made. Instead, Musk promised a $25,000 car three years down the line that would “basically be on par” with a gasoline car.

According to Tickeron,

TSLA in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2020

TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 38 cases where TSLA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.

Current price $391.96 is above $377.42 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 08/20/20 - 09/22/20, the price experienced a +6% Uptrend, while the week of 09/15/20 - 09/22/20 shows a -6% Downtrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 18, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TSLA as a result. In 51 of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in 233 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 230 of 288 cases where TSLA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TSLA moved out of overbought territory on September 02, 2020. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on September 04, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 79%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.3 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TSLA's P/B Ratio (40.03) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-0.70). TSLA's P/E Ratio (1103.90) is considerably higher than the industry average of (201.16). TSLA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.64) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.40). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.77) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.69) is also within normal values, averaging (35635.43)