Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
Abhoy Sarkar
published in Blogs
Oct 02, 2020
Tesla (TSLA, $435.08) Q3 140,000 deliveries tops expectations

Tesla (TSLA, $435.08) Q3 140,000 deliveries tops expectations

Electric carmaker Tesla  reported third-quarter delivery figure that exceeded expectations. However, the number might still not be too optimistic with respect to its full year target of 500,000 .

Tesla said deliveries for the three months ending in September came in  at a record 139,300, just above the Street forecast.  Production increased to 145,000 vehicles.

In the prior quarter, delivery  was 90,650 . That means, Tesla needs to shift a record 166,000 cars over the last quarter of the year to meet its 2020 target of 500,000.

Major contributor to the latest quarter’s deliveries were Tesla's Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUVs with 128,044 units produced, and 124,100 delivered. Age part can be attributed to the company’s improving demand in China and the its production in its new Shanghai factory.

"In terms of days of sales, new vehicle inventory declined further in Q3 as we continue to improve our delivery efficiency," Tesla said.

The carmaker also mentioned that its delivery figures should be viewed as “slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct."

According to Tickeron,  TSLA is in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2020

TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 34 of 38 cases where TSLA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.

Current price $435.08 is above $377.42 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 08/31/20 - 10/01/20, the price experienced a -10% Downtrend, while the week of 09/24/20 - 10/01/20 shows a +16% Uptrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TSLA as a result. In 53 of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.

Following a +6.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in 236 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 216 of 288 cases where TSLA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for TSLA moved out of overbought territory on September 02, 2020. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.

The Stochastic Indicator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on September 04, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 66%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 80%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.54 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TSLA's P/B Ratio (42.29) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-0.79). TSLA's P/E Ratio (1166.17) is considerably higher than the industry average of (207.66). TSLA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.64) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.40). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.77) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.69) is also within normal values, averaging (35635.43).

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