Tesla (TSLA, $445.69) gets price target boost from Piper Sandler analyst
Electric carmaker Tesla’s shares got a price target hike from Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter.
Citing Tesla’s Energy segment and Elon Musk's compensation as “two poorly-understood aspects of Tesla's business” , Potter has raised his price target on Tesla stock from $480 per share to $515 per share while reiterating an overweight rating on the shares.
According to Potter, Tesla Energy is a topic "everyone tries to avoid" due to the lack of inclusion of the business line in many analysts' estimates. However, Piper Sandler feels that the business has significant growth potential and offers upside to Tesla's valuation. "We now expect Tesla Energy to eventually exceed $200B/yr in revenue, with TSLA controlling over 1/3 of the market for stationary batteries. We anticipate sharply higher demand for these products, particularly in the late 2020s and 2030s, as renewable energy grows toward 40% of electricity generation," says Potter.
On Musk's compensation plan, said,"[Whenever] performance-based milestones are crossed, triggering another tranche of vested options, TSLA shareholders must endure sudden up-ticks in stock-based comp (SBC). This line item will be particularly burdensome in the next few quarters, with Tesla expected to book stock-based compensation of $1B+ in 2H20. SBC is a non-cash expense, but it does impact GAAP earnings, which is the preferred metric for inclusion in the S&P500." Nevertheless, Potter notes that the maximum compensation from the plan has been fixed since the time it was established. He points out that the “total expense associated with Musk's plan is known (~$2.3B), so the main question regards the timing of these expenses."
Tickeron's analysis shows:
TSLA's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TSLA moved out of overbought territory on September 02, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 30 of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 75%.
Current price $445.69 is above $377.42 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 08/17/20 - 09/17/20, the price experienced a +15% Uptrend. During the week of 09/10/20 - 09/17/20, the stock enjoyed a +14% Uptrend growth.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Indicator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2020. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSLA as a result. In 45 of 66 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on September 04, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +20.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in 230 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
TSLA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 242 of 288 cases where TSLA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 78%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.22 to 1.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TSLA's P/B Ratio (39.96) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-0.87). TSLA's P/E Ratio (1101.82) is considerably higher than the industry average of (201.85). TSLA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.64) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.40). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.77) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.69) is also within normal values, averaging (35635.43).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TSLA in -2.38% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 10, 2024
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where TSLA declined for three days, in of 264 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TSLA moved out of overbought territory on October 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 07, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSLA as a result. In of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSLA turned negative on October 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
TSLA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
TSLA moved above its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSLA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSLA advanced for three days, in of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 310 cases where TSLA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 79%.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSLA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.905) is normal, around the industry mean (6.019). P/E Ratio (40.726) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.031). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.067) is also within normal values, averaging (5.553). TSLA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (6.305) is also within normal values, averaging (76.807).
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