Day traders and market watchers are often left wondering whether -- and by how much -- President Trump's tweets affect the market and stocks. As the president unabashedly wages trade threats and targets companies like Amazon in his Twitter feed, traders have eyed the market closely for reactions.
Now, Goldman Sachs has compiled data to pinpoint just how much tweets affect market action. Using regression analysis to test the relationship between tweets and various assets -- while controlling for the dollar and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index -- Goldman Sachs found that there wasn't much correlation between assets and tweets except for one: soybeans.
After the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on roughly $34 billion of Chinese goods, the Chinese government retaliated with $34 billion of US goods including soybeans. Soybean futures have plummeted to their lowest levels in decades.
The issue with soybeans, unlike many other commodities, is that supplies can not be completely rerouted and new buyers are difficult to come by, given that China is the world's largest importer of soybeans. Last year, it imported $12.4 billion worth of soybeans from the United States.
Even though China can turn to Brazil as another major producer of soybeans, its relationship with the US is big enough to make a significant impact on prices and producers. It's also big enough to be sensitive to tweets.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GS turned positive on April 23, 2024. Looking at past instances where GS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GS as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GS moved above its 50-day moving average on April 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GS advanced for three days, in of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 273 cases where GS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GS moved out of overbought territory on April 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.270) is normal, around the industry mean (5.433). P/E Ratio (18.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.241). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.284) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.091) is also within normal values, averaging (105.216).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of investment banking, securities and asset management services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers