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published in Blogs
Dec 05, 2020

The Rally in Renewable Energy Equipment Stocks Could Be Coming to a Halt

Since the bottom in March, all facets of the renewable energy industry have made huge gains. Some of the renewable energy equipment stocks have seen gains of 800% and more. While the gains have been impressive, the rallies could be coming to an end or seeing a pause at the very least.

Three companies in particular jumped out at me because all three have seen pullbacks in the current week. Those pullbacks have caused a bearish crossover in the weekly stochastic readings. Enphase Energy (ENPH), Plug Power (PLUG), and SunPower (SPWR) are all three seeing their stocks drop this week. All three have seen big gains in their stock prices since March, but Plug Power stands out among the three.

Plug bottomed at a price of $2.53 in March and it recently peaked at $28.70. That is a gain of 1,034% in nine months. The huge rally has put the stock in overbought territory based on the weekly stochastic readings and the 10-week RSI. The monthly versions of those indicators are also showing overbought levels. SunPower and Enphase are both in overbought territory based on the weekly and monthly indicators as well.

When I got the signals for the bearish stochastic crossovers on the three stocks, I pulled the three up on Tickeron’s Screener to see how the stocks performed in the various fundamental and technical categories. The first that jumped out was that all three stocks received “sell” ratings from the Tickeron Scorecard.

If we break down the ratings, Plug and SunPower both have four negative fundamental ratings compared to only one positive reading for each one. Enphase Energy does considerably better with three positive ratings to only two negative ratings. The only area where all three get negative ratings is in the Outlook Rating. Plug and SunPower both get poor ratings from their SMR Ratings and the P/E Growth Ratings. Enphase and Plug both get negative ratings in the Valuation Rating category. The only area where two of the three get a positive rating is in the Profit vs. Risk Ratings—both Plug and Enphase score well in that category.

The stocks do score better in the technical indicators. Both Plug and Enphase have three bullish signals and three bearish signals. SunPower has two bullish signals and four bearish signals. There are several areas where we see all three stocks getting the same reading. All three are getting bearish signals from the RSI, the MACD, and the Bollinger Band indicators. All three have gotten recent bullish signals from the Momentum and AROON indicators. Because of the big rallies, both Plug and Enphase get bullish readings on the Moving Average indicator.

Investor and analyst’s sentiment is quite different for the three companies. Analysts love Plug with nine “buy” ratings and only one “hold” rating. Enphase is slightly below average in this indicator with 10 “buy” ratings and seven “hold” ratings. SunPower is the one that is the least liked by analysts with only three “buy” ratings, seven “hold” ratings, and two “sell” ratings. What this tells us is that analysts are expecting to Plug to outperform the others while SunPower is expected to underperform.

SunPower also has the most pessimism from short sellers with a short interest ratio of 3.79. That reading is a little higher than the average stock. Enphase’s short interest ratio is at 3.0 which is right in line with average while Plug Power’s short interest ratio is below average at 1.78.

Here’s how the three stocks rank in the various fundamental and technical indicators from Tickeron.

Related Ticker: ENPH

ENPH sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory

On March 01, 2024, the Stochastic Oscillator for ENPH moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 49 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ENPH just turned positive on March 01, 2024. Looking at past instances where ENPH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ENPH moved above its 50-day moving average on February 07, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for ENPH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 15, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ENPH advanced for three days, in of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ENPH moved out of overbought territory on February 16, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 26, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ENPH as a result. In of 70 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ENPH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ENPH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for ENPH entered a downward trend on February 08, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ENPH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ENPH's P/B Ratio (17.889) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.603). P/E Ratio (42.088) is within average values for comparable stocks, (40.539). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.896) is also within normal values, averaging (2.193). ENPH has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (8.110) is also within normal values, averaging (34.023).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ:SEDG), Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG), Bloom Energy Corp (NYSE:BE), Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ), SunPower Corp (NASDAQ:SPWR), FuelCell Energy (NASDAQ:FCEL), GrafTech International Ltd (NYSE:EAF).

Industry description

The industry produces a diverse range of electricity-powered equipment, appliances and components, catering to both households and industries. The products include power, distribution and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators and motor-generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; light bulbs, tubes, fittings and electric signs etc. Consumer income, construction spending, and industrial production are major drivers of demand for this industry’s products. Large companies tend to have economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution, while smaller companies can potentially carve out their own market through niche or specialty offerings. The US electrical products manufacturing industry includes about 5,700 establishments (single-location companies and units of multi-location companies) with combined annual revenue of about $125 billion. (according to a study published in First Research). Emerson Electric Co., Hubbell Incorporated and Eaton Corporation plc are major electrical products makers in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Electrical Products Industry is 3.97B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 750 to 181.26B. NISSF holds the highest valuation in this group at 181.26B. The lowest valued company is EDYYF at 750.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Electrical Products Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 0%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19%. AACTF experienced the highest price growth at 173%, while ASTI experienced the biggest fall at -34%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Electrical Products Industry was 25%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -7% and the average quarterly volume growth was 74%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 72
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 80
Seasonality Score: -11 (-100 ... +100)
View a ticker or compare two or three
ENPHDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of solar micro-inverter systems

Industry ElectricalProducts

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Semiconductors
Address
47281 Bayside Parkway
Phone
+1 877 774-7000
Employees
3157
Web
https://www.enphase.com
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ENPH and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ENPH has been closely correlated with SEDG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ENPH jumps, then SEDG could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To ENPH
1D Price
Change %
ENPH100%
+2.06%
SEDG - ENPH
78%
Closely correlated
+1.06%
RUN - ENPH
65%
Loosely correlated
+1.25%
NOVA - ENPH
62%
Loosely correlated
-0.55%
SPWR - ENPH
57%
Loosely correlated
+2.57%
CSIQ - ENPH
56%
Loosely correlated
-0.52%
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