GET DAILY SIGNALSThe Trade Desk (TTD) Delivers Q3 Beat, Shares Rise +21% on Strong Guidance
Key Takeaways
- The Trade Desk reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $735.97 million, topping the consensus estimate of roughly $651 million even as revenue slipped 0.5% year over year.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.33, beating the $0.25 consensus estimate by about 30%.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $265.8 million, far above expectations of roughly $161 million.
- The company guided fourth-quarter 2026 revenue to at least $755 million, well above the approximately $692 million analysts were modeling.
- Customer retention remained above 95%, extending a streak that has lasted more than a decade.
- Shares jumped roughly 21% in after-hours trading as investors welcomed the stronger-than-expected results and guidance.
- For deeper context, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages for The Trade Desk.
- Discover automated trading ideas and AI-driven signals by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Why This Quarter Matters
The Trade Desk's (TTD) third-quarter report carried extra significance for investors. The company has been working through a growth slowdown that sent shares sharply lower from earlier peaks, and revenue declined year over year for the first time since its 2016 IPO. Management has described this phase as a transition period focused on artificial intelligence, the upgraded Kokai Zuma platform, and deeper ties with major advertisers. In that setting, the sizable revenue and profit beats, along with guidance that topped Wall Street forecasts, suggested the turnaround efforts could be starting to show results. The market's strong positive response reflected both relief and fresh optimism about the company's path ahead. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how TTD compares to others in the industry.
The Quarter's Numbers
The Trade Desk (TTD) reported revenue of $735.97 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with $739.43 million a year earlier. That modest decline still represented a roughly 13% beat versus the consensus estimate of about $651 million. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 exceeded the $0.25 consensus and compared with $0.45 in the prior-year period. On a GAAP basis, net income fell to $38.05 million from $115.55 million a year earlier, with diluted EPS of $0.08 versus $0.23.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $265.8 million, producing a 36.1% margin, down from about 43% a year ago but far above the consensus estimate of roughly $161 million. Operating margin declined to 12.6% from 21.8% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting higher spending on platform operations, sales and marketing, and technology. For the fourth quarter, management guided to revenue of at least $755 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $280 million, both comfortably above analyst expectations.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
The market responded positively to the results. Shares climbed roughly 21% in after-hours trading, a notable move for a stock that had lost about 66% of its value since the start of 2026. Investors appeared to focus on the wide revenue and profit beats and, more importantly, on fourth-quarter guidance that signaled a potential inflection in demand. The expanded share repurchase authorization, which added $731 million and brought the total available buyback capacity to $1 billion, provided additional support to sentiment. Still, management acknowledged that growth remains below the levels it expects from itself, tempering some of the near-term optimism.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Monitor
Investors will be watching whether The Trade Desk (TTD) can translate its fourth-quarter guidance into sustained momentum. The company's guidance of at least $755 million in revenue implies a return to sequential growth, and its commentary around market share gains in connected TV and retail media partnerships heading into the holiday season will be a key test.
Several factors are worth monitoring in the quarters ahead. First, watch whether the company's investments in artificial intelligence and its Kokai Zuma platform begin to accelerate revenue growth beyond a single quarter. Second, pay attention to operating margin trends, which have narrowed as the company has increased spending on technology and customer engagement. Third, monitor customer retention and engagement with the largest advertisers, since the company has emphasized strengthening these relationships.
Broader industry dynamics will also matter. Competition in programmatic advertising and connected TV remains intense, and shifts in advertiser budgets can influence near-term results. The company's ability to sustain demand across its measurement and audience initiatives will be central to whether the turnaround described by management becomes durable. As always, these observations are informational and do not constitute investment advice.
My Research Approach with AI Tools
In my own analysis, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter opportunities across ad tech and related sectors. It allows me to apply customizable filters for fundamentals, technical patterns, and performance metrics, helping surface ideas that align with my current focus on growth names like TTD. This approach streamlines the process of comparing peers and spotting potential setups without manual screening.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TTD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TTD turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where TTD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TTD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTD advanced for three days, in 220 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 119 of 168 cases where TTD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 67 cases where TTD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TTD as a result. In 69 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
TTD moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TTD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
TTD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.375) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.802). P/E Ratio (0.154) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.593). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.886) is also within normal values, averaging (1.501). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.084) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.329) is also within normal values, averaging (1.860).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TTD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TTD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of online advertising exchange
Industry AdvertisingMarketingServices
Advertisement