Forecasts for colder-than-normal weather conditions may have triggered a sharp upward rally in natural gas prices in the U.S. on Monday. Owing to early season demand across U.S., the November price of natural gas rose by more than by 8.1 cents to $3.242/MMBtu, and spot gas rose by 17 cents to $3.135/MMBtu at the start of the week.
With the early season unanticipated cold snap expected to persist throughout October, demand for natural gas is expected rise further. An inventory shortage could put upward pressure on prices if supply and demand become imbalanced as a result.
For now, the unexpected surge in demand saw many gas-oriented energy companies post strong gains early in the week, and these companies could bear watching as winter approaches. Range Resources Corporation (RRC, $17.65), Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN, $5.60) and Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK, $4.60) were some of the top gainers, rising by +5.3%, +4.9% and +3.4% respectively.
The Stochastic Oscillator for SWN moved out of overbought territory on May 24, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 67 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 67 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 26, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SWN as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SWN moved below its 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SWN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 18, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SWN just turned positive on May 15, 2023. Looking at past instances where SWN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for SWN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 19, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWN advanced for three days, in of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 204 cases where SWN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SWN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.875) is normal, around the industry mean (5.972). P/E Ratio (0.854) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.691). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.561) is also within normal values, averaging (55.823). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.089) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.389) is also within normal values, averaging (155.317).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows