Tilray's (TLRY, $72.24) Q4 sales beat estimates, albeit with squeezed margins
Tilray Inc. experienced a loss for the fourth quarter, but had blockbuster growth in sales - thanks to a burgeoning medical marijuana market.
The Canadian pharmaceutical and marijuana company incurred a net loss of -33 cents per share for the three months ending in December, compared to a 4 cents per share profit from the same period in 2017. The company’s revenue, however, tripled to $15.5 million – beating analysts’ estimates of $14.1 million. According to Tilray, the number of kilograms of cannabis and derivative products increased nearly three-fold to 2,053, from 694 kilograms of the year-ago quarter.
Sales for the full-year 2018 surged +110% to $43.1 million.
Tilray felt a downward pressure on its fourth quarter gross margins, which at 20% were nearly a third the rate of the previous period. CEO Brendan Kennedy attributed this to increased procurement costs and taxes for medical patients, while also portending a potential future temporary headwind to margins from the company’s overseas expansion plans. But Kennedy seemed more optimistic on the long-term prospects. "Longer term, we continue to expect 50% plus gross margins as we lower our costs through greenhouse and outdoor cultivation, and as we ramp those facilities past the start-up phase," Kennedy said.
The fourth quarter saw Tilray make some major headway in business partnerships and expansion goals. The company expanded its collaboration with Sandoz (a division of Swiss drug maker Novartis) to widen the reach of medical cannabis to patients globally. Tilray also revealed plans of a research and development partnership with AB InBev, on non-alcohol THC and CBD-infused beverages – a project for which the two firms might invest up to $50 million each.
TLRY's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TLRY moved out of oversold territory on December 17, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 41 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on December 23, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLRY as a result. In of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLRY just turned positive on December 20, 2024. Looking at past instances where TLRY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +2 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLRY advanced for three days, in of 211 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLRY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TLRY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TLRY entered a downward trend on December 20, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.545) is normal, around the industry mean (58.252). P/E Ratio (8.518) is within average values for comparable stocks, (90.460). TLRY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.947). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.122) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.355) is also within normal values, averaging (19.472).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TLRY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TLRY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a holding company, whose subsidiaries engages in research, cultivation, processing and distribution of medical cannabis
Industry PharmaceuticalsOther