TODAY'S IMPORTANT POINTS FROM JANET YELLEN'S SPEECH
Fed Chair Yellen Speech- Key Excerpts
- The process of scaling back accommodation has so far proceeded at a slower pace than most FOMC participants anticipated in 2014.
- Looking ahead, we continue to expect the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, given how close we are to meeting our statutory goals, and in the absence of new developments that might materially worsen the economic outlook, the process of scaling back accommodation likely will not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016.
- the current value of the neutral real federal funds rate appears to be even lower than this longer-run value because of several additional headwinds to the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as subdued economic growth abroad and perhaps a lingering sense of caution on the part of households and businesses in the wake of the trauma of the Great Recession.
- The progress seen during 2014 indicated to the FOMC that it was no longer necessary to provide increasing amounts of support to the U.S. economy by continuing to add to the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities.
- Because my colleagues and I expected that labor market conditions would continue to improve and that inflation would move back to 2 percent over the medium term, we anticipated that the time was approaching when the economy would be strong enough that we should start to scale back our support.
- The U.S. economy has exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of adverse shocks in recent years, and economic developments since mid-2016 have reinforced the Committee's confidence that the economy is on track to achieve our statutory goals.
- However, partly because my colleagues and I expect the neutral real federal funds rate to rise somewhat over the longer run, we projected additional gradual rate hikes in 2018 and 2019.
- Nonetheless, as we have said many times--and as my discussion today demonstrates--monetary policy cannot be and is not on a preset course.
- To that end, we realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession. Having said that, I currently see no evidence that the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve, and I therefore continue to have confidence in our judgment that a gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate.
SPY in +2.41% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on June 02, 2023
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 360 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 25, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on May 26, 2023. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 441 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 02, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
Category LargeBlend
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Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPY has been closely correlated with IVV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 100% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPY jumps, then IVV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SPY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 100% | -0.19% | ||
| IVV - SPY | 100% Closely correlated | -0.17% | ||
| SPLG - SPY | 100% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| VOO - SPY | 100% Closely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| SPTM - SPY | 100% Closely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| SCHX - SPY | 100% Closely correlated | -0.18% | ||
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