Iconic steel manufacturer U.S. Steel Group (NYSE: X) has been trending lower for over a year now and the stock has rallied in the past month and a half. Unfortunately the stock could be facing some resistance now as it is hitting the upper rail of a trend channel that has defined trading over the past six months.
You can see how the upper rail is formed by the highs in July and November. The lower rail isn’t as clear cut, but if the stock drops anywhere near the lower rail, it will take the price down below the $16 level.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bearish signal on the stock on February 5. That prediction showed a confidence level of 72% and previous predictions on U.S. Steel have been accurate 86% of the time. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the coming month.
U.S. Steel’s fundamentals are all over the place at this time. Earnings growth has been flat over the last few years, but the most recent quarterly report showed a jump of 139%. The company has a good return on equity at 25.6%, but the profit margin is a paltry 2.1%.
Given the downward trend, the confusing fundamentals, and the bearish signal, it would be hard to bet on U.S. Steel going up at this time.
X saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 18, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 15, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on X as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 13, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where X's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where X advanced for three days, in of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.792) is normal, around the industry mean (1.254). P/E Ratio (10.938) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.214). X's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.752). X has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.005) as compared to the industry average of (0.048). P/S Ratio (0.551) is also within normal values, averaging (1.291).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. X’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacture of integrated steel products
Industry Steel