Ulta Beauty (ULTA, $379.37) beats fiscal Q4 expectations
Ulta Beauty posted its fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results, with earnings and revenue both exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The beauty and cosmetics company’s earnings came in at $5.41 a share, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61. The figure is also substantially higher than the year-ago quarter’s $3.41.
Net sales climbed +24.1% from the year-ago quarter to $2,729.4 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,703.4 million. Revenue got a significant boost from tailwinds related to solid consumer confidence and looser pandemic-induced restrictions.
Comps climbed +21.4% vs. a decrease of -4.8% in the prior-year quarter. There was a 10.4% increase in transactions on the back of on double-digit growth in-store traffic . The 9.9% increase in average tickets gained from increased higher average selling price and units per transaction.
ULTA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on August 17, 2023
ULTA moved below its 50-day moving average on August 17, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 52 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 21, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ULTA as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for ULTA entered a downward trend on September 21, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ULTA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 17 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA just turned positive on September 11, 2023. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ULTA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.699) is normal, around the industry mean (12.235). P/E Ratio (16.234) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.668) is also within normal values, averaging (2.695). ULTA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.036). P/S Ratio (1.910) is also within normal values, averaging (82.579).
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High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products
Industry SpecialtyStores
ULTA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ULTA has been loosely correlated with TSCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ULTA jumps, then TSCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ULTA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA | 100% | -1.37% | ||
| TSCO - ULTA | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.22% | ||
| SBH - ULTA | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| HNST - ULTA | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| FIVE - ULTA | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| CPRT - ULTA | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.05% | ||
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