Ulta Beauty (ULTA, $379.37) beats fiscal Q4 expectations
Ulta Beauty posted its fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results, with earnings and revenue both exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
The beauty and cosmetics company’s earnings came in at $5.41 a share, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61. The figure is also substantially higher than the year-ago quarter’s $3.41.
Net sales climbed +24.1% from the year-ago quarter to $2,729.4 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,703.4 million. Revenue got a significant boost from tailwinds related to solid consumer confidence and looser pandemic-induced restrictions.
Comps climbed +21.4% vs. a decrease of -4.8% in the prior-year quarter. There was a 10.4% increase in transactions on the back of on double-digit growth in-store traffic . The 9.9% increase in average tickets gained from increased higher average selling price and units per transaction.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ULTA sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
ULTA saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 10, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ULTA as a result. In 53 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 220 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 210 of 279 cases where ULTA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.881) is normal, around the industry mean (1.755). P/E Ratio (19.997) is within average values for comparable stocks, (241.673). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.113). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.033).
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General Information
a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products
Industry SpecialtyStores
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