Ulta (ULTA, $382.04) tops Q1 expectations

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 53 cases where ULTA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in 220 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ULTA as a result. In 52 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ULTA turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.881) is normal, around the industry mean (2.222). P/E Ratio (19.997) is within average values for comparable stocks, (243.370). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.978) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).