Under Armour (UAA, $17.57) beats Q4 expectations; but supply chain issues affect outlook
Under Armour reported fourth-quarter earnings and sales that beat analysts’ expectations. However, supply chain constraints weigh on its projection.
Adjusted earnings came in at 14 cents , well ahead of 7 cents expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Revenue of $1.53 billion also topped the Street estimates of $1.47 billion.
Net revenue in North America grew +15% year-over-year . International sales rose +3%. E-commerce sales increased +4% from the year-ago period.
Following a three-month transition period from Jan. 1, 2022, to March 31, the company expects sales to increase by a mid-single-digit rate, compared with a prior forecast for a low-single-digit increase. Supply chain constraints are restricting the amount of spring and summer products it can offer, thereby potentially pressuring sales. It expects earnings for that period to be in a range of 2 cents to 3 cents a share.
Momentum Indicator for UAA turns negative, indicating new downward trend
UAA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on April 22, 2022. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 62 of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 76%.
Current price $9.74 crossed the support line at $9.99 and is trading between $9.99 support and $-29.44 support lines. Throughout the month of 04/25/22 - 05/25/22, the price experienced a -38% Downtrend. During the week of 05/18/22 - 05/25/22, the stock fell -7%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAA turned negative on April 22, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator for UAA entered a downward trend on May 25, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 27 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 14 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAA advanced for three days, in 243 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
UAA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 79%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.19.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UAA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.603) is normal, around the industry mean (2.939). P/E Ratio (20.747) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.812). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.115) is also within normal values, averaging (1.344). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.803) is also within normal values, averaging (1.735).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UAA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Apparel/footwear might be slightly more ‘cyclical’ in the largely non-cyclical category of non-durables. While digital giants like Amazon have been rapidly expanding their presence, traditional clothing/footwear retailers have also been bulking up their online presence in recent years, to milk the burgeoning trend of online shopping among consumers across the globe. The apparel and footwear retail market was valued at around $ 360 billion in 2018, and this figure was expected to reach about $386 billion by 2020 (according to a Statista report). NIKE, Inc, V.F. Corporation and Under Armour, Inc. are some of the companies with the largest U.S. stock market caps in this segment.
The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Industry is 5B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.7K to 171B. NKE holds the highest valuation in this group at 171B. The lowest valued company is SQBGQ at 1.7K.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was -1.99%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.64%. SAML experienced the highest price growth at 124%, while CDGXF experienced the biggest fall at -35.58%.
- 5/17/22 6:52 AM: Under Armour (UAA, $10.92) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.71% jump
- 4/20/22 8:58 AM: Under Armour (UAA, $16.72) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.09% jump
- 3/30/22 5:33 AM: Under Armour (UAA, $18.03) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.25% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Industry was 47.71%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 78.98% and the average quarterly volume growth was 109.77%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Negative Outlook today, backed by the 15 Indicator. Tickeron has a negative outlook on this group and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 42%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.4.
10 stocks in the group of tickers confirmed the negative outlook based on the MA50MA10 indicator with average odds of 75%.
The most notable companies in this group are Nike (NYSE:NKE), VF Corp (NYSE:VFC), Capri Holdings Limited (NYSE:CPRI), Skechers USA (NYSE:SKX), Canada Goose Holdings (NYSE:GOOS), G-III Apparel Group Ltd (NASDAQ:GIII), Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE).
The average market capitalization across the group is 6.5B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 602.8K to 168.8B. NKE holds the highest valuation in this group at 168.8B. The lowest valued company is SAML at 602.8K.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was 1.75%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -11.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.97%. SAML experienced the highest price growth at 124%, while CDGXF experienced the biggest fall at -35.58%.
- 5/25/22 7:32 AM: Caleres (CAL, $20.93) was a top loser this week, declining -18.69%. Expect a Downtrend reversal
- 5/25/22 7:32 AM: Samsara Luggage (SAML, $0.28) was a top weekly gainer, with a +124% jump
- 5/24/22 7:00 AM: Forward Industries (FORD, $1.6) is a top weekly gainer for penny stocks, rising +15.11%
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was 136.53%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 155.47% and the average quarterly volume growth was 408.63%
- 5/11/22 7:39 AM: The volume for Hennes & Mauritz AB stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 209% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 4/14/22 4:48 AM: The volume for Hennes & Mauritz AB stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 617% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 4/6/22 8:45 AM: The volume for Oxford Industries stock increased for four consecutive days, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 64% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows