United Parcel Service (UPS, $157.85) beat Q4 adjusted earnings expectations; but with an -$3 billion unadjusted loss
United Parcel Service reported a -$3 billion loss for the fourth quarter, but adjusted earnings were well above Wall Street estimates.
The package delivery company’s adjusted earnings came in at $2.66 a share, compared to the $2.14 a share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The figure was also higher than the $2.11 in the year-ago quarter.
But including $5.6 billion in charges related to pension adjustment costs and other factors including taxes and the sale of UPS Freight, the company incurred a loss of -$3.3 billion, or -$3.75 a share (sharper than the loss of -12 cents in the same quarter last year).
UPS revenue grew +21% year-over-year to $24.9 billion, which is $2 billion above analysts estimates.
Revenues from U.S. package came in at $15.75 billion, an increase of +17.4% year over year. International package revenue rose +23.3% year-over-year to $4.77 billion. Average daily volume increased +10.6%, according to UPS.
UPS did not issue revenue or diluted earnings per share guidance , amid the continued uncertainty due to the global pandemic. However, the company gave a full-year guidance for capital allocation, around $4 billion.
UPS said it has no plans to buyback shares or access the debt capital markets in 2021.
UPS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS turned positive on October 24, 2024. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 60 cases where UPS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 231 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on October 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 24, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.278) is normal, around the industry mean (20.237). P/E Ratio (18.926) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.262). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.752) is also within normal values, averaging (10.503). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.396) is also within normal values, averaging (1.287).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry AirFreightCouriers