United Parcel Service (UPS, $157.85) beat Q4 adjusted earnings expectations; but with an -$3 billion unadjusted loss
United Parcel Service reported a -$3 billion loss for the fourth quarter, but adjusted earnings were well above Wall Street estimates.
The package delivery company’s adjusted earnings came in at $2.66 a share, compared to the $2.14 a share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The figure was also higher than the $2.11 in the year-ago quarter.
But including $5.6 billion in charges related to pension adjustment costs and other factors including taxes and the sale of UPS Freight, the company incurred a loss of -$3.3 billion, or -$3.75 a share (sharper than the loss of -12 cents in the same quarter last year).
UPS revenue grew +21% year-over-year to $24.9 billion, which is $2 billion above analysts estimates.
Revenues from U.S. package came in at $15.75 billion, an increase of +17.4% year over year. International package revenue rose +23.3% year-over-year to $4.77 billion. Average daily volume increased +10.6%, according to UPS.
UPS did not issue revenue or diluted earnings per share guidance , amid the continued uncertainty due to the global pandemic. However, the company gave a full-year guidance for capital allocation, around $4 billion.
UPS said it has no plans to buyback shares or access the debt capital markets in 2021.
UPS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2025
UPS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UPS as a result. In of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UPS just turned positive on October 16, 2025. Looking at past instances where UPS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 192 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
UPS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 03, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.693) is normal, around the industry mean (2.754). P/E Ratio (12.979) is within average values for comparable stocks, (175.013). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.374) is also within normal values, averaging (1.679). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.075) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.029). P/S Ratio (0.823) is also within normal values, averaging (0.973).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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