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Feb 02, 2021

United Parcel Service (UPS, $157.85) beat Q4 adjusted earnings expectations; but with an -$3 billion unadjusted loss

United Parcel Service  reported a -$3 billion loss for the fourth quarter, but adjusted earnings were well above Wall Street estimates.

The package delivery company’s adjusted earnings came in at $2.66 a share, compared to the  $2.14 a share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The figure was also higher than the  $2.11 in the year-ago quarter.

But including $5.6 billion in charges related to pension adjustment costs and other factors including taxes and the sale of UPS Freight, the company incurred a loss of -$3.3 billion, or -$3.75 a share (sharper than the loss of -12 cents in the same quarter last year).

UPS revenue grew +21% year-over-year to $24.9 billion, which is $2 billion above analysts estimates.

Revenues from U.S. package came in at $15.75 billion, an increase of +17.4% year over year. International package revenue rose +23.3% year-over-year to $4.77 billion. Average daily volume increased +10.6%, according to UPS.

UPS did not issue revenue or diluted earnings per share guidance , amid the continued uncertainty due to the global pandemic. However, the company gave a full-year guidance for capital allocation, around $4 billion.

UPS said it has no plans to buyback shares or access the debt capital markets in 2021.

 

Related Ticker: UPS

UPS in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on March 12, 2024

The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 213 cases where UPS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on March 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 61 cases where UPS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 26, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UPS turned negative on March 26, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

UPS moved below its 50-day moving average on March 26, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.262) is normal, around the industry mean (17.686). P/E Ratio (18.888) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.693). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.748) is also within normal values, averaging (10.510). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (1.146).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS), FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX), C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW).

Industry description

The Air Freight/Couriers industry operates air transportation and recurring delivery services. This includes companies offering same-day deliveries, scheduled delivery and logistical services. The proliferation of e-commerce/online retail with a growing emphasis on faster delivery has expanded opportunities for this industry, and induced more competition. United Parcel Service, Inc., FedEx Corporation and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. are some of the major companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Air Freight/Couriers Industry is 10.96B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 2.6M to 125.69B. UPS holds the highest valuation in this group at 125.69B. The lowest valued company is PTNYF at 2.6M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Air Freight/Couriers Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5%. CTTOF experienced the highest price growth at 21%, while PDPTF experienced the biggest fall at -52%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Air Freight/Couriers Industry was -21%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 44% and the average quarterly volume growth was 24%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 60
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 62
Profit Risk Rating: 78
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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UPSDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions

Industry AirFreightCouriers

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Air Freight Or Couriers
Address
55 Glenlake Parkway
Phone
+1 404 828-6000
Employees
500000
Web
https://www.ups.com
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