UnitedHealth Group trending lower despite fundamentals
Health insurance provider UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has been trending lower since early December. Unlike most stocks that bottomed in December and have since been trending higher, UnitedHealth peaked in early December and then fell sharply. It rallied with the market in January but then peaked again in February before falling sharply yet again.
If we connect the highs from December and February we get a downward sloped trend line and the stock just hit that trend line earlier this week. Now the stock has turned lower and it looks as though the resistance will hold.
We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings were both in overbought territory earlier this week, but have now turned lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on May 23.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on UnitedHealth Group on May 22. That signal showed a confidence level of 73% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the stock have been successful 75% of the time.
What is really interesting about Unitedhealth Group is that the fundamental indicators aren’t that bad. In fact, they’re pretty good. The company has grown earnings at a rate of 27% per year over the last three years and the EPS were up 23% in the most recent report. Sales have grown as well, but not as well as earnings. The average annual rate of revenue growth for the last three years was 11%.
Looking at Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS and SMR rating system, UnitedHealth Group scores a 95 on the EPS rating and a B on the SMR rating. Both of those numbers are above average, but the Relative Price Strength rating is a 43. That reading is below average.
UNH's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 4 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 230 cases where UNH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 14, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UNH as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
UNH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNH's P/B Ratio (5.086) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.063). P/E Ratio (20.524) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.509). UNH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.382) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.089). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. UNH's P/S Ratio (1.236) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.684).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a provider of hospital and medical service plans
Industry ManagedHealthCare
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