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May 24, 2019

UnitedHealth Group trending lower despite fundamentals

Health insurance provider UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has been trending lower since early December. Unlike most stocks that bottomed in December and have since been trending higher, UnitedHealth peaked in early December and then fell sharply. It rallied with the market in January but then peaked again in February before falling sharply yet again.

If we connect the highs from December and February we get a downward sloped trend line and the stock just hit that trend line earlier this week. Now the stock has turned lower and it looks as though the resistance will hold.

We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings were both in overbought territory earlier this week, but have now turned lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on May 23.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on UnitedHealth Group on May 22. That signal showed a confidence level of 73% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the stock have been successful 75% of the time.

What is really interesting about Unitedhealth Group is that the fundamental indicators aren’t that bad. In fact, they’re pretty good. The company has grown earnings at a rate of 27% per year over the last three years and the EPS were up 23% in the most recent report. Sales have grown as well, but not as well as earnings. The average annual rate of revenue growth for the last three years was 11%.

Looking at Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS and SMR rating system, UnitedHealth Group scores a 95 on the EPS rating and a B on the SMR rating. Both of those numbers are above average, but the Relative Price Strength rating is a 43. That reading is below average.

Related Ticker: UNH

UNH in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on February 28, 2024

The 10-day moving average for UNH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 28, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 27, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UNH as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UNH turned negative on February 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

UNH moved below its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

UNH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 246 cases where UNH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNH's P/B Ratio (5.102) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.129). P/E Ratio (20.517) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.000). UNH's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.381) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.059). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. UNH's P/S Ratio (1.236) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.656).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to slightly better than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Unitedhealth Group (NYSE:UNH), Elevance Health (NYSE:ELV), Cigna Group (The) (NYSE:CI), CVS HEALTH Corp (NYSE:CVS), Humana (NYSE:HUM), Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC).

Industry description

Managed healthcare industry focuses on providing health/medical and disability insurance plans, generally intended to reduce the cost of for-profit health care. The insurance products might be provided through employer-paid (fully or partly) insurance and benefit programs, or through Medicare/Medicaid. Some of the largest providers of managed health care include Aetna, Humana Inc., and Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Managed Health Care Industry is 58.09B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.42M to 452.78B. UNH holds the highest valuation in this group at 452.78B. The lowest valued company is HRAA at 3.42M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Managed Health Care Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 17%. MRAI experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while ALHC experienced the biggest fall at -10%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Managed Health Care Industry was 64%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 22% and the average quarterly volume growth was 75%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 37
P/E Growth Rating: 75
Price Growth Rating: 46
SMR Rating: 84
Profit Risk Rating: 68
Seasonality Score: 42 (-100 ... +100)
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UNHDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of hospital and medical service plans

Industry ManagedHealthCare

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Managed Health Care
Address
9900 Bren Road East
Phone
+1 952 936-1300
Employees
400000
Web
https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com
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UNH and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UNH has been closely correlated with ELV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UNH jumps, then ELV could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To UNH
1D Price
Change %
UNH100%
-0.82%
ELV - UNH
74%
Closely correlated
-0.43%
HUM - UNH
71%
Closely correlated
+0.49%
MOH - UNH
66%
Closely correlated
-1.70%
CNC - UNH
63%
Loosely correlated
-0.57%
CVS - UNH
50%
Loosely correlated
-0.71%
More
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