UnitedHealth Group trending lower despite fundamentals
Health insurance provider UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has been trending lower since early December. Unlike most stocks that bottomed in December and have since been trending higher, UnitedHealth peaked in early December and then fell sharply. It rallied with the market in January but then peaked again in February before falling sharply yet again.
If we connect the highs from December and February we get a downward sloped trend line and the stock just hit that trend line earlier this week. Now the stock has turned lower and it looks as though the resistance will hold.
We see that the 10-day RSI and the daily stochastic readings were both in overbought territory earlier this week, but have now turned lower. The stochastic readings made a bearish crossover on May 23.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on UnitedHealth Group on May 22. That signal showed a confidence level of 73% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the stock have been successful 75% of the time.
What is really interesting about Unitedhealth Group is that the fundamental indicators aren’t that bad. In fact, they’re pretty good. The company has grown earnings at a rate of 27% per year over the last three years and the EPS were up 23% in the most recent report. Sales have grown as well, but not as well as earnings. The average annual rate of revenue growth for the last three years was 11%.
Looking at Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS and SMR rating system, UnitedHealth Group scores a 95 on the EPS rating and a B on the SMR rating. Both of those numbers are above average, but the Relative Price Strength rating is a 43. That reading is below average.
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UNH's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for UNH moved out of oversold territory on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 30 of 47 cases where UNH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UNH as a result. In 46 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UNH just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where UNH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +3.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNH advanced for three days, in 187 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
UNH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for UNH entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.445) is normal, around the industry mean (3.247). P/E Ratio (24.282) is within average values for comparable stocks, (139.958). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.025) is also within normal values, averaging (0.786). UNH has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.024) as compared to the industry average of (0.009). P/S Ratio (0.757) is also within normal values, averaging (0.569).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UNH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of hospital and medical service plans
Industry ManagedHealthCare
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