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Exploring Shale Oil's Surging Momentum: A Close Look at Recent Market Shifts
🛢️ Theme Description
The shale oil sector has set the financial world abuzz with its remarkable gains, boasting a substantial +9.12% surge in the last month. This dynamic group encompasses an array of companies, including giants like $XOM and $BHP, along with agile players such as $PXD and $FANG. These firms are engaged in various facets of oil production, with a particular focus on extracting high-quality shale oil. While pricier to retrieve than conventional crude, the superior quality of this oil has kept it in high demand. From Marathon Oil to Diamondback Energy, these companies are integral players in the energy industry, where market movements are heavily influenced by economic factors, geopolitical tensions, and shifting political landscapes. Moreover, the sector's future could see fluctuations under environmentally-conscious administrations and Middle East tensions.
📈 Stock Fear & Greed Index
Today's outlook for the shale oil stocks is bolstered by the Momentum Indicator, offering a positive perspective. Tickeron's predictions lend credence to an anticipated increase of over 4.00% within the upcoming month, boasting an 80% likelihood. The past month's trading also witnessed a promising ratio of advancing to declining volumes, indicating a favorable market sentiment.
📊 Market Cap
The shale oil theme showcases an average market capitalization of 60.4B, with valuations across tickers spanning from 20.4M to a towering 440.5B. A juggernaut like Exxon Mobil Corp ($XOM) commands the highest valuation, while the smaller-scaled HPR stands at the lower end of the spectrum.
📉 High and Low Price Notable News
Price fluctuations have been the talk of the town for the shale oil group. An average weekly price growth of -0.31% paints an interesting picture. Over the last month, the sector saw a substantial 9.12% price hike, while the quarter reported a 9.95% growth. Despite this upward trajectory, certain stocks experienced contrasting trends. While MTDR enjoyed a 4.03% price growth, BHP faced a notable fall of -5.36%.
The sector's resilience and activity shine through its average weekly volume growth of 4.68%. Monthly and quarterly volume growth, however, witnessed marginal declines of -5.42% and -40.69% respectively, indicating a sustained market engagement.
📊 Fundamental Analysis Ratings
Assessing fundamental factors reveals a mixed bag of ratings across key aspects. Valuation and P/E Growth Ratings fall within the mid-range, while Price Growth, SMR, and Profit Risk Ratings range from moderate to weaker scores. Seasonality, which stands at -20, suggests a somewhat unfavorable historical pattern.
Valuation Rating: 54
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 29
SMR Rating: 35
Profit Risk Rating: 47
Seasonality Score: -20 (-100 ... +100)
🚀 Notable Ticker Insights
1. $MRO - Marathon Oil Corporation - Marathon Oil is enjoying a robust +2.95% uptrend, maintaining this growth for three consecutive days since August 18, 2023. Such a consistent positive movement tends to indicate an upward trajectory. Historical data underscores this pattern, with the price rising further within the next month in 246 out of 308 similar instances. The odds of continued upward movement stand at an encouraging 80%.
2. $XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation - Exxon Mobil is riding a +3.48% uptrend, propelled by a three-day consecutive rise from August 18, 2023. This trend is often seen as a bullish sign, reflecting positive market sentiment. Historical analysis reveals that in 221 out of 331 comparable cases, the price continued to rise within the following month. This trend suggests a 67% likelihood of sustained upward movement.
3. $EOG - EOG Resources, Inc. - EOG Resources is on the rise as its 50-day Moving Average surpasses the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential long-term bullish signal. With a current price of $130.61, EOG is trading between resistance and support lines, signaling a promising upward trend.
4. $CPE - Callon Petroleum Company - Callon Petroleum ($CPE) is riding the wave of positive momentum, with its Momentum Indicator crossing above the 0 level on August 17, 2023. This shift indicates a potential upward movement. Analysis of similar instances showcases that in 79 out of 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of further upward movement are at an impressive 89%.
5. $VTLE - Vital Energy Inc. - Vertex Energy ($VTLE) is showcasing a remarkable +4.99% uptrend, maintaining this trajectory for three consecutive days since August 18, 2023. This pattern often indicates a bullish outlook. Historical data underscores this trend, with prices rising further within the next month in 230 out of 272 comparable cases, reflecting an 85% likelihood of sustained upward movement.
As the shale oil sector continues to captivate investors with its significant gains, these notable stocks showcase the market's resilience and potential for growth. The interplay between geopolitical factors, economic trends, and shifting political dynamics will remain pivotal in shaping the sector's trajectory. Stay tuned for further insights into these intriguing market dynamics.
Tickers of this group:
MUR saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on August 22, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MUR moved out of overbought territory on September 11, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 15, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MUR as a result. In of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MUR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 21, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MUR declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MUR advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MUR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 271 cases where MUR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MUR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.305) is normal, around the industry mean (6.197). P/E Ratio (6.761) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.491). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.328) is also within normal values, averaging (2.534). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.125) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.807) is also within normal values, averaging (120.438).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a company which engages in oil and gas exploration and production
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MUR has been closely correlated with MRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MUR jumps, then MRO could also see price increases.