UPS (UPS, $194.62) beats Q1 earnings expectations
United Parcel Service reported first quarter earnings that surpassed expectations.
The delivery company’s adjusted net income came in at $5.47 a share, vs. an adjusted loss of -$2.87 a share in the year-ago quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected earnings of $1.72 a share.
Revenue surged +27% from the year-ago period to $22.9 billion, also beating analysts’ expectation of $20.49 billion.
The company’s revenue in its U.S. domestic unit rose 22.3%, led by growth from small- and medium-sized businesses.
UPS has been benefitting from increased online deliveries as consumers staying at home during the pandemic order various items on digital platforms. It is also delivering COVID-19 vaccines.
“During the quarter, we continued to execute our strategy under the better not bigger framework, which enabled us to win the best opportunities in the market and drove record financial results,” CEO Carol Tome said in a statement.
Citing “continued economic uncertainty”, the company did not provide any projection for 2021 revenue or diluted earnings per share.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
UPS sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
UPS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 16, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 44 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In 47 of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UPS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 202 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.322) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (17.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.070) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.013). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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