US-China announce Phase One of trade deal
On Friday, the U..S and China initially announced their agreement on the “Phase One” trade deal. While that might have assuaged trade war fears, certain elements of the apparent truce still remain unclear for now.
Thanks to the phase one agreement, China held off tariffs that were scheduled for Sunday on US goods. The proposed tariffs would have included U.S. autos and parts., and corn and other grains. The US also withdrew from its prior plan of slapping 15% tariffs on $160 billion worth of Chinese imports by Sunday.
Reuters reported that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that China would buy at least $16 billion more agricultural goods in each of the next two years, adding to the 2017 baseline of $24 billion. The report also mentions that Beijing agreed to try for $5 billion more in additional purchases each year – that would leads to total additional purchases of $40 billion to $50 billion.
Some existing tariffs on U.S. imports to China remain, just as the U.S. maintains its already-imposed tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25% on about $370 billion of Chinese goods. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo that he sees the existing 25% tariffs on $250 billion on China as "insurance" to get China’s compliance with a deal.
Lighthizer indicated that the phase one deal includes structural changes by China such as commitments on ending pressure for U.S. companies to transfer their technology, and improved protections for intellectual property.
However, the phase one deal’s success could critically depend on whether and by how much the U.S. will roll back other tariffs, and when.
Both China and the U.S. would still need to officially sign the agreement, which Chinese officials said requires legal review. Lighthizer said both countries hope to sign the deal in Washington in early January.
SPY in -2.99% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 10, 2025
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SPY declined for three days, in of 255 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on October 09, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 71 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 10, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on October 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 467 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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