On Friday, the U..S and China initially announced their agreement on the “Phase One” trade deal. While that might have assuaged trade war fears, certain elements of the apparent truce still remain unclear for now.
Thanks to the phase one agreement, China held off tariffs that were scheduled for Sunday on US goods. The proposed tariffs would have included U.S. autos and parts., and corn and other grains. The US also withdrew from its prior plan of slapping 15% tariffs on $160 billion worth of Chinese imports by Sunday.
Reuters reported that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that China would buy at least $16 billion more agricultural goods in each of the next two years, adding to the 2017 baseline of $24 billion. The report also mentions that Beijing agreed to try for $5 billion more in additional purchases each year – that would leads to total additional purchases of $40 billion to $50 billion.
Some existing tariffs on U.S. imports to China remain, just as the U.S. maintains its already-imposed tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25% on about $370 billion of Chinese goods. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo that he sees the existing 25% tariffs on $250 billion on China as "insurance" to get China’s compliance with a deal.
Lighthizer indicated that the phase one deal includes structural changes by China such as commitments on ending pressure for U.S. companies to transfer their technology, and improved protections for intellectual property.
However, the phase one deal’s success could critically depend on whether and by how much the U.S. will roll back other tariffs, and when.
Both China and the U.S. would still need to officially sign the agreement, which Chinese officials said requires legal review. Lighthizer said both countries hope to sign the deal in Washington in early January.
Watch for a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on March 01, 2024. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 445 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPY has been closely correlated with IVV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 100% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPY jumps, then IVV could also see price increases.