US economic growth to slow in 2019 and 2020 - CNBC survey predicts
According to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, U.S. economic growth is expected to slow this year and the next. Respondents of the survey include economists, fund managers and strategists.
The survey respondents predict a growth of 2.3% on average for U.S. gross domestic product this year, lowering their expectations compared to the January forecast of 2.44%. The figure also indicates an expected deceleration compared to the actual 3.1% year-over-year growth of the fourth quarter 2018.
For 2020, the respondents expect an even slower economic growth at below 2%.
Global growth sluggishness and trade tariffs were the top reasons cited by respondents as headwinds to the U.S. economic growth. Slowing overseas growth was responsible for a reduction of 40 basis points in the GDP growth forecast, while tariffs imposed by the U.S. and other nations lowered expectations by another 20 basis points.
The implication, according to the survey results, could translate into fewer rate hikes by the Fed. 60% of the respondents are expecting just one hike in policy interest rate this year, while 14% are even conjecturing a possible rate cut.
Momentum Indicator for SPY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SPY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 03, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 69 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 69 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 07, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 433 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on June 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on May 28, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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