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Jul 24, 2019

US Foods Holding (USFD) hits lower rail of channel, gets bullish signal

Wholesale food distributor US Foods Holding (NYSE: USFD) has been trending higher since last November. A trend channel has formed in the last seven months with the lower rail connecting the lows from November, December, May, and now June. A parallel upper rail connects the highs from November, February, and May. The stock just hit the lower rail of the channel and looks to bounce back from a recent pullback.

One other development from the chart is the fact that the daily stochastic readings dropped down below the 30 level and made a bullish crossover on June 26. The indicators didn’t quite reach oversold territory, but the crossover could act as a bullish sign.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for US Foods on June 24. The signal showed a confidence level of 63% and it calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on the stock have been successful 76% of the time.

The company’s fundamentals are somewhat mixed at this time. The company has been able to grow earnings at a rate of 27% per year over the last three years and they grew by 6% in the most recent quarter. Unfortunately, sales have only grown by 2% per year over the last three years. The company’s profit margin is also below average at 2.6%.

Related Ticker: PFGC

PFGC in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on June 07, 2024

PFGC moved below its 50-day moving average on June 07, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 40 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFGC moved out of overbought territory on May 20, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 14, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PFGC as a result. In of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PFGC turned negative on May 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

The 10-day moving average for PFGC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 30, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFGC declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

PFGC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for PFGC entered a downward trend on May 09, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PFGC advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.985) is normal, around the industry mean (17.564). P/E Ratio (27.044) is within average values for comparable stocks, (62.406). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.660) is also within normal values, averaging (1.517). PFGC has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.040). P/S Ratio (0.200) is also within normal values, averaging (1.490).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PFGC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Industry description

Food distributors function as intermediaries between food manufacturers and food service operators (such as chefs, restaurants, beverage managers, cafeterias, industrial caterers, hospitals and nursing homes). Food distribution companies buy, store and then supply food items to the food service operators, thereby allowing the latter to have access to a wide range of food items from various manufacturers. Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding Corp. and Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. are some of the biggest (by market cap) U.S. companies in this segment. Most food service operators buy from local, specialty, and/or broad line food service distributors on a daily or weekly basis. With the rise in e-commerce, consumers are increasingly expecting lower prices, faster service, and higher quality – something that potentially creates the impetus on distribution networks to raise their game.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Food Distributors Industry is 4.86B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 21.55K to 40.11B. SYY holds the highest valuation in this group at 40.11B. The lowest valued company is LFER at 21.55K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Food Distributors Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. IVFH experienced the highest price growth at 6%, while MCLE experienced the biggest fall at -35%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Food Distributors Industry was -25%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -8% and the average quarterly volume growth was -81%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 45
P/E Growth Rating: 64
Price Growth Rating: 54
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 75
Seasonality Score: -13 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a distributor of food products

Industry FoodDistributors

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Food Distributors
Address
12500 West Creek Parkway
Phone
+1 804 484-7700
Employees
35000
Web
https://www.pfgc.com
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