US GDP revised down to +2.2% in Q4; year-over-year growth moves closer to Trump target
The U.S. economy in the fourth quarter 2018 grew at a rate slower than previously estimated. On a year-over-year basis, however, growth inched closer to President Donald Trump’s vision.
On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product (GDP) grew +2.2% in Q4, compared to Q3. That was a downward revision from the Dept.’s prior estimate of +2.6% growth for Q4. Consumer spending, government expenditure, and nonresidential fixed investment were all revised down.
Fourth quarter also marks a slowing of growth compared to the third’s quarter’s +3.4%. However, Q4 GDP rose +3% from the year-ago quarter. In 2017, Donald Trump’s administration had promised to push the annual growth of GDP to +3% while championing tax cuts.
Nonresidential fixed investment, increased +5.4%, higher than the +2.5% growth in the third quarter.
SPY in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on February 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 71 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 70 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on March 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 367 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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