US GDP revised down to +2.2% in Q4; year-over-year growth moves closer to Trump target
The U.S. economy in the fourth quarter 2018 grew at a rate slower than previously estimated. On a year-over-year basis, however, growth inched closer to President Donald Trump’s vision.
On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product (GDP) grew +2.2% in Q4, compared to Q3. That was a downward revision from the Dept.’s prior estimate of +2.6% growth for Q4. Consumer spending, government expenditure, and nonresidential fixed investment were all revised down.
Fourth quarter also marks a slowing of growth compared to the third’s quarter’s +3.4%. However, Q4 GDP rose +3% from the year-ago quarter. In 2017, Donald Trump’s administration had promised to push the annual growth of GDP to +3% while championing tax cuts.
Nonresidential fixed investment, increased +5.4%, higher than the +2.5% growth in the third quarter.
SPY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SPY moved above the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 03, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 432 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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