US manufacturing activity index drops to 49.1%, amidst tariff war
Amidst the ongoing Sino-American trade war, a leading gauge of U.S. manufacturing activity fell into contraction territory last month.
For the first time during U.S. President Donald Trump's tenure, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index dropped to a reading of 49.1% in August - from 51.2% in July. The reading also came in lower than the 51.5% that economists had projected for August.
Any reading below the 50% level for the above-mentioned index is an indication of contraction in manufacturing activity.
Manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. gross domestic product (compared to consumer spending share of around 70%). The manufacturing survey should not typically signal a recession in the overall economy until readings fall below 42.9%, according to the institute.
While much of the U.S.-China tariff war narrative apparently centers around the objective of boosting U.S. industries, the decline in U.S. manufacturing activity could potentially imply headwinds to U.S. producers from rising tariff-induced costs of buying inputs/materials.
DIA sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for DIA moved above the 200-day moving average on July 10, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 17, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DIA as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DIA advanced for three days, in of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 325 cases where DIA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DIA moved out of overbought territory on July 07, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 66 cases where DIA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DIA turned negative on July 15, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DIA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
DIA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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