US manufacturing activity index drops to 49.1%, amidst tariff war
Amidst the ongoing Sino-American trade war, a leading gauge of U.S. manufacturing activity fell into contraction territory last month.
For the first time during U.S. President Donald Trump's tenure, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index dropped to a reading of 49.1% in August - from 51.2% in July. The reading also came in lower than the 51.5% that economists had projected for August.
Any reading below the 50% level for the above-mentioned index is an indication of contraction in manufacturing activity.
Manufacturing accounts for 12% of U.S. gross domestic product (compared to consumer spending share of around 70%). The manufacturing survey should not typically signal a recession in the overall economy until readings fall below 42.9%, according to the institute.
While much of the U.S.-China tariff war narrative apparently centers around the objective of boosting U.S. industries, the decline in U.S. manufacturing activity could potentially imply headwinds to U.S. producers from rising tariff-induced costs of buying inputs/materials.
DIA in -0.48% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on June 05, 2025
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where DIA declined for three days, in of 267 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DIA moved out of overbought territory on May 20, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 68 cases where DIA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 13, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DIA as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DIA turned negative on June 13, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
DIA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
DIA moved above its 50-day moving average on May 08, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DIA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 12, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DIA advanced for three days, in of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 327 cases where DIA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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