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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
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Feb 12, 2021

Using Technical Analysis to Trade Cryptocurrencies

Investing is about considering a myriad of factors at once, with access to data being at the center of importance – the more data you have, the easier it is to make intelligent decisions. Investing in cryptocurrency is slightly different, however, as there is very little (if any) fundamental data to discern. No earnings reports, no profits/sales to monitor, very few valuation metrics to analyze.

In the absence of fundamental analysis, it is technical analysis that becomes the primary source of data used for trading. Indeed, technical and chart analysis can help make sense of price trends and allow us to anticipate market shifts. Once patterns are identified, one can apply some simple math to make smarter decisions about how to buy and sell intelligently.

Once an investor considers the value of technical analysis and chart trading, the question then becomes: is reading charts good enough?

The answer, I believe, is no. One must have a method for testing results and obtaining statistics to measure the efficacy of their technical trading process. Without statistics, the strategy is little more than guesswork.  

Tickeron’s Artificial Intelligence is an example of technical analysis and chart-reading strategy that keeps statistics on predictions and also backtests patterns to see how effective they would have been. That includes but is not limited to the percentage of time the security reached its target price, the % gain or loss on the trade based on the AI’s advice, number of days the security remained in the pattern, and more. Having hard data can not only prove the efficacy of AI technology, but it can also help the trader decide whether they think the risk is worth taking.

Are you new to technical analysis and trading? Here are some basic terms and concepts to help you get started:

Channels

The space between the two parallel lines is called a channel. Within the channel, there can be ascending (highs are higher, lows are lower), descending (lower highs and lows), or horizontal (equal highs and lows) trends. To maximize your return, buy crypto when the price touches the support line and sell when it hits the resistance line. Breakouts are possible in bull and bear markets, but channels will generally be indicative of broader tendencies.

Triangles

If your resistance and support lines make a triangle shape, this usually means the market is somewhat unsettled. There are three different kinds of triangles: symmetrical (the market will likely continue whichever way it breaks the trendlines at the point of the triangle), ascending (prices will probably break the resistance line when it is horizontal), and descending (prices are expected to continue decreasing when they break a horizontal support line).

Other patterns

There are numerous patterns that can also help us recognize market evolutions. These include flags (typically occurring after periods of fast growth when prices rally sharply and then move to the downside. Sharp price rises preceding the flag shape are called flag poles; traders look for the price breaking out above the trendlines and enter a long trade), Eliott waves (used in tandem with a mathematical calculation called a Fibonacci retracement, Eliott waves can show us good buy markets), and candlestick patterns (a technique derived from 18th century Japanese rice traders that packs data from multiple time frames into single price bars, making it easier to predict price directions

Mathematical indicators

It is useful to familiarize yourself with some basic mathematical indicators that help us identify when to buy and sell a security. A couple of the most common is called a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI).

SMAs are based on the average of multiple time periods – to calculate, add the closing price of the cryptocurrency over a number of time periods, then divide the total by the total number of time periods. When the SMA points up, the price is increasing and down signifies a decrease. Longer timeframes mean smoother moving averages.

RSIs can tell us whether cryptocurrency is being overbought or oversold, giving us a relative evaluation of recent performance. It is calculated through a formula that divides average growth by average decreases. An RSI of 70 or above indicates overvalue, and likely downward price correction. RSIs 30 or below often indicate the inverse.

These are just some of the patterns and indicators can make you a better cryptocurrency investor – the more you learn, the easier it is to make the right moves in dynamic markets.

 

Related Ticker: BTC.X

BTC.X's RSI Indicator recovers from overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Indicator for BTC.X moved out of overbought territory on May 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 57 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 13, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BTC.X as a result. In of 140 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BTC.X turned negative on June 08, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

BTC.X moved below its 50-day moving average on June 18, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

BTC.X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 04, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 10-day moving average for BTC.X crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 20, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in of 433 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 426 cases where BTC.X Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 14.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 53%.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the group is 1.28T. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.28T to 1.28T. BTC.X holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.28T. The lowest valued company is BTC.X at 1.28T.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was -3%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 48%. BTC.X experienced the highest price growth at -3%, while BTC.X experienced the biggest fall at -3%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was 6%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 105% and the average quarterly volume growth was 76%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating:
P/E Growth Rating:
Price Growth Rating:
SMR Rating:
Profit Risk Rating:
Seasonality Score: (-100 ... +100)
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BTC.XDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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