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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 12, 2019

Utilities ETF (XLU) hits lower rail of upwardly sloped channel and gets a bullish signal

The utilities sector is often viewed as a safety sector, offering less risk than the more cyclical sectors. With the overall market moving higher over the last three weeks, utilities have lagged the other sectors. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU) has dropped 1.3% since July 8 and that is the worst performance among the 10 main sector SPDRs.

While the XLU has lagged in the last few weeks, the slight decline has allowed a couple of trend lines to catch up to the fund. The first one is the 50-day moving average and the ETF just hit it in the last few days. The second trend line is actually the lower rail of an upwardly sloped channel. We see that the line connects the lows from May and June while the upper rail connects the highs from April, May, and June.

When the XLU dropped to its low on May 9 that formed the first point of the lower rail and the fund jumped over 6% in just over two weeks. The second point that helped form the lower rail was on June 4 and after hitting that low the fund jumped 5.87% in three trading days.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the XLU on July 25 and the signal showed a confidence level of 84%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on the XLU have been successful 90% of the time.

From a fundamental standpoint, utilities may become more attractive as it appears as if the Fed will cut rates at the July meeting. When the Fed cuts rates, utility stocks become more attractive for the yields the dividends provide.

Related Ticker: XLU

XLU's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Oscillator for XLU moved out of overbought territory on May 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 30 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 03, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLU as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLU turned negative on May 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for XLU entered a downward trend on June 21, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLU advanced for three days, in of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 76%.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nextera Energy Inc (NYSE:NEE), Southern Company (The) (NYSE:SO), PG&E Corp (NYSE:PCG), Dominion Energy (NYSE:D).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Utilities Select Sector Index. In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes securities of companies from the following industries: electric utilities; water utilities; multi-utilities; independent power and renewable electricity producers; and gas utilities. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the The Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF is 58.8B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 33.3B to 131.17B. NEE holds the highest valuation in this group at 131.17B. The lowest valued company is PEG at 33.3B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the The Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was -1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. CEG experienced the highest price growth at 2%, while PCG experienced the biggest fall at -3%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the The Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was 146%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 107% and the average quarterly volume growth was 104%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 55
P/E Growth Rating: 68
Price Growth Rating: 47
SMR Rating: 66
Profit Risk Rating: 56
Seasonality Score: -10 (-100 ... +100)
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XLUDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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