GET DAILY SIGNALSUtilities sector ETF (XLU) hugging the upper rail of an upward sloped channel
Normally, I look for signals on stocks or ETFs that are hitting the lower rail of upward sloped channels, but the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLU) got my attention yesterday as it is up near the upper rail of a trend channel. In the case of the XLU, it has been known to stay up close to the upper rail depending upon the risk appetite of investors.
We see on the chart below how the channel formed in the second quarter before falling in December to form the lower rail. If you consider how the overall market fell in the fourth quarter—first in October and then falling farther in December, the utilities sector held up well, until December.
The lower rail formed with a trio of dips in late December and early January. From that point, the XLU has been moving higher and it even held up and moved higher in the first week of March as the rest of the market was pulling back.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on the XLU on March 13 and that signal had a confidence level of 83%. Previous predictions for the XLU have been accurate 87% of the time. In this case, the prediction is calling for the XLU to move at least 4% higher within the next month.
I have a theory on the utilities sector and how it outperformed the overall market throughout most of the fourth quarter. When investors get nervous about stocks, they don’t jump out of all stocks at first. The first move is to get out of riskier sectors like tech, energy, and consumer discretionary.
Some investors move money out of these sectors and into the utilities sector so as to have money in stocks still. At some point, investors give in to the drop in the market and get out of everything—including utilities. But the utilities sector is usually the last hope. Once investors start jumping out of utilities, it is usually a capitulation point in my view.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
XLU's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for XLU moved out of oversold territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 27 of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLU as a result. In 72 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLU just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
XLU moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 17 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +2.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLU advanced for three days, in 296 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 270 of 336 cases where XLU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
XLU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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