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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 15, 2019

Utilities sector ETF (XLU) hugging the upper rail of an upward sloped channel

Normally, I look for signals on stocks or ETFs that are hitting the lower rail of upward sloped channels, but the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLU) got my attention yesterday as it is up near the upper rail of a trend channel. In the case of the XLU, it has been known to stay up close to the upper rail depending upon the risk appetite of investors.

We see on the chart below how the channel formed in the second quarter before falling in December to form the lower rail. If you consider how the overall market fell in the fourth quarter—first in October and then falling farther in December, the utilities sector held up well, until December.

The lower rail formed with a trio of dips in late December and early January. From that point, the XLU has been moving higher and it even held up and moved higher in the first week of March as the rest of the market was pulling back.

The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on the XLU on March 13 and that signal had a confidence level of 83%. Previous predictions for the XLU have been accurate 87% of the time. In this case, the prediction is calling for the XLU to move at least 4% higher within the next month.

I have a theory on the utilities sector and how it outperformed the overall market throughout most of the fourth quarter. When investors get nervous about stocks, they don’t jump out of all stocks at first. The first move is to get out of riskier sectors like tech, energy, and consumer discretionary.

Some investors move money out of these sectors and into the utilities sector so as to have money in stocks still. At some point, investors give in to the drop in the market and get out of everything—including utilities. But the utilities sector is usually the last hope. Once investors start jumping out of utilities, it is usually a capitulation point in my view. 

Related Ticker: XLU

Momentum Indicator for XLU turns positive, indicating new upward trend

XLU saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 24, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLU advanced for three days, in of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 299 cases where XLU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLU moved out of overbought territory on May 22, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 65 cases where XLU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLU turned negative on May 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

XLU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 08, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Nextera Energy Inc (NYSE:NEE), Southern Company (The) (NYSE:SO), PG&E Corp (NYSE:PCG), Dominion Energy (NYSE:D).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in the Utilities Select Sector Index. In seeking to track the performance of the index, the fund employs a replication strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 95%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index includes securities of companies from the following industries: electric utilities; water utilities; multi-utilities; independent power and renewable electricity producers; and gas utilities. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF is 58.8B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 33.3B to 131.17B. NEE holds the highest valuation in this group at 131.17B. The lowest valued company is PEG at 33.3B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was -1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 16%. CEG experienced the highest price growth at 8%, while EXC experienced the biggest fall at -5%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Utilities Select Sector SPDR® ETF ETF was -21%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -22% and the average quarterly volume growth was 73%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 27
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 54
Seasonality Score: -6 (-100 ... +100)
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XLUDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

Category Utilities

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Utilities
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One Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
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