AI dvisor's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 23, 2023

Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE, $4.03) netting in a 34.94% gain over 1 month

On February 15, 2023, A.I.dvisor, a stock market analysis platform, detected a bearish Head-and-Shoulders Top Pattern for Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE, $6.01). This pattern was confirmed by A.I.dvisor on March 01, 2023, with a target price of the stock. On March 22, 2023, the stock hit the target price of $4.02, resulting in a significant gain of +34.94% for traders who shorted the stock on the pattern detection date.

In addition to the bearish pattern, SPCE was also experiencing a downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on March 20, 2023. A three-day decline is often viewed as a bearish sign, indicating a potential future decline in the stock price. Investors should closely monitor the stock's movement and consider the potential risks associated with investing in SPCE.

Historical data from situations where SPCE declined for three days showed that in 195 of 215 cases, the price continued to decline further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are, therefore, quite high at 90%. Therefore, it is recommended to keep an eye on this stock for future declines, and investors should consider the potential risks before investing in SPCE.
 

Related Ticker: SPCE

SPCE in -23.36% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on May 26, 2023

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SPCE declined for three days, in of 230 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPCE moved out of overbought territory on May 24, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 25, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPCE as a result. In of 55 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPCE turned negative on May 26, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 32 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

SPCE moved below its 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.

The 10-day moving average for SPCE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 17, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPCE advanced for three days, in of 209 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

SPCE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 150 cases where SPCE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SPCE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.604) is normal, around the industry mean (25.112). P/E Ratio (50.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (311.012). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (7.856). SPCE has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.023). P/S Ratio (384.615) is also within normal values, averaging (173.520).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPCE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC), Spirit Aerosystems Holdings (NYSE:SPR), Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE).

Industry description

Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Aerospace & Defense Industry is 10.12B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.66K to 136.27B. RTX holds the highest valuation in this group at 136.27B. The lowest valued company is ASDN at 1.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 8%, and the average quarterly price growth was 19%. OBTEF experienced the highest price growth at 179%, while VORBQ experienced the biggest fall at -82%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was 25%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 7% and the average quarterly volume growth was 157%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 60
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 76
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: 29 (-100 ... +100)
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