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published in Blogs
Oct 20, 2020

Virgin Galactic (SPCE, $23.07) shares jump on short-sellers' comment

Spaceflight company Virgin Galactic Holdings  shares climbed Tuesday, after short seller Jim Chanos reportedly said he would go long on any space company that has gone public.

Jim Chanos, president and founder of Kynikos Associates of New York, made the comment at Grant’s Fall 2020 conference in New York City, (Reuters reported.)

In interviews, Chanos has described his investment strategy focused on fundamental failures in market valuation, from underestimated or unreported failings in the business or the market of a particular stock.

On Monday, Virgin Galactic President Mike Moses told New Mexico state lawmakers that the first test space flight from Spaceport America will take place sometime this fall. That step is expected to be the final step towards taking paying customers into space, (according to KOB News).

In August, Virgin Galactic reported  a net loss of -$63 million, or -30 cents a share, compared to the year-ago period’s  loss of -$41 million, or -23 cents a share. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a loss of -26 cents a share.

Tickeron's analysis shows: a 'Buy' rating for SPCE.

Momentum Indicator for SPCE turns positive, indicating new upward trend

SPCE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 28, 2020. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 13 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 13 of the 13 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.

Current price $23.12 is above $20.77 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 09/17/20 - 10/19/20, the price experienced a +33% Uptrend. During the week of 10/12/20 - 10/19/20, the stock enjoyed a +11% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPCE just turned positive on September 28, 2020. Looking at past instances where SPCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 6 of 7 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.

SPCE moved above its 50-day Moving Average on September 28, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day Moving Average for SPCE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 3 of 3 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Following a +5.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPCE advanced for three days, in 53 of 57 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 51 of 64 cases where SPCE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 80%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPCE moved out of overbought territory on October 09, 2020. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 8 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 6 of the 8 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.

The Stochastic Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.

SPCE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 28, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 74%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 2.42 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SPCE's P/B Ratio (13.55) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.69). P/E Ratio (433.86) is within average values for comparable stocks, (190.53). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (2.02). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.63) among similar stocks. SPCE's P/S Ratio (4511.81) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (96.30).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPCE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.

Related Ticker: SPCE

Momentum Indicator for SPCE turns negative, indicating new downward trend

SPCE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on February 29, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 66 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 66 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPCE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for SPCE entered a downward trend on February 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPCE's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 54 cases where SPCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPCE just turned positive on February 12, 2024. Looking at past instances where SPCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 38 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPCE advanced for three days, in of 249 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.376) is normal, around the industry mean (4.843). P/E Ratio (50.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (285.798). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (7.602). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (86.207) is also within normal values, averaging (165.968).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SPCE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPCE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC), Spirit Aerosystems Holdings (NYSE:SPR), Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE).

Industry description

Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Aerospace & Defense Industry is 11.33B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.66K to 124.3B. BA holds the highest valuation in this group at 124.3B. The lowest valued company is ASDN at 1.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 7%, and the average quarterly price growth was 20%. SIDU experienced the highest price growth at 115%, while LUNR experienced the biggest fall at -27%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was 5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 71% and the average quarterly volume growth was 130%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 62
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 78
Profit Risk Rating: 71
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: AEROSPACE DEFENSE 2
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SPCEDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a holding company, which engages in the business of owning and operating privately built spaceships

Industry AerospaceDefense

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
N/A
Address
1700 Flight Way
Phone
+1 949 774-7640
Employees
1166
Web
https://www.virgingalactic.com
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SPCE and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPCE has been loosely correlated with RKLB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 42% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SPCE jumps, then RKLB could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To SPCE
1D Price
Change %
SPCE100%
-7.89%
RKLB - SPCE
42%
Loosely correlated
-2.65%
ASTR - SPCE
39%
Loosely correlated
-12.36%
LILM - SPCE
39%
Loosely correlated
+2.24%
ACHR - SPCE
35%
Loosely correlated
-1.67%
KAMN - SPCE
35%
Loosely correlated
+0.04%
More
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