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published in Blogs
Jul 09, 2020

Walgreens (WBA, $38.60) misses Q3 earnings estimate

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. reported third quarter earnings that missed analysts' expectations. 

The retail/wholesale pharmacy company’s adjusted earnings for the three months ending in May came in at 83 cents per share, falling short of the Street consensus estimate of $1.18 per share. The EPS was also -43.5% lower from the same period last year.  

Revenues rose +0.1% year-over-year to $34.6 billion, just ahead of analysts' estimates of a $34.35 billion.

Looking ahead, the company projected adjusted earnings in the region of $4.65 per share to $4.75 per share for the year, which  includes a coronavirus impact of between $1.03 and $1.14 per share. 

According to Tickeron, WBA in Downtrend: RSI indicator exits overbought zone

WBA's price could be shifting from an uptrend to a downtrend. Traders may consider selling the ticker or exploring put options. In 21 of 29 cases where WBA's RSI Indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 72%.

Current price $38.50 is below $41.19 the lowest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 06/05/20 - 07/08/20, the price experienced a -7% Downtrend. During the week of 06/30/20 - 07/08/20, the stock fell -0.24%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 06, 2020. Traders may consider selling the ticker, shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 55 of 86 cases where WBA's Momentum Indicator fell below the 0 level, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 64%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed below the signal line. In 36 of 52 cases where WBA's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 69%.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed below its 50-day Moving Average on July 07, 2020. This can be construed as a sell signal, indicating that the trend is shifting lower. In 9 of 16 cases where WBA's 10-day Moving Average crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 56%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 21 of 35 cases where WBA's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 60%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. 31 of 61 cases where WBA's Stochastic Indicator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 27 of 45 similar backtested cases where WBA's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 61 of 181 similar cases where WBA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 61%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.12 to 1.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WBA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WBA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.57) is normal, around the industry mean (2.94). P/E Ratio (10.87) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.67). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.51) is also within normal values, averaging (0.57). Dividend Yield (3.47) settles around the average of (1.98) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.29) is also within normal values, averaging (0.66).

Related Ticker: WBA

Momentum Indicator for WBA turns negative, indicating new downward trend

WBA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on February 21, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 92 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day moving average for WBA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 24, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WBA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for WBA entered a downward trend on February 20, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where WBA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 43 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 64 cases where WBA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WBA just turned positive on February 20, 2024. Looking at past instances where WBA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WBA advanced for three days, in of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

WBA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.963) is normal, around the industry mean (10.852). P/E Ratio (32.970) is within average values for comparable stocks, (142.161). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.414) is also within normal values, averaging (2.018). Dividend Yield (0.078) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.132) is also within normal values, averaging (1.072).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WBA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WBA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA), RITE AID Corp (OTC:RADCQ).

Industry description

The drugstore chains industry includes stores that sell medicines (both prescription and non-prescription), health, beauty and personal care products. Over time, many pharmacy retail chains have launched their own pharmacy benefits management services. Since demand for medical products is typically less sensitive to economic cycles, drugstore retail chains industry could be largely considered as non-cyclical. CVS Health Corporation, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. and Rite Aid Corporation are some of the biggest operators in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Drugstore Chains Industry is 3.4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.29K to 18.77B. WBA holds the highest valuation in this group at 18.77B. The lowest valued company is RLLVF at 3.29K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Drugstore Chains Industry was 14%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 12%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. RADCQ experienced the highest price growth at 127%, while SSY experienced the biggest fall at -8%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Drugstore Chains Industry was 44%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 17% and the average quarterly volume growth was -73%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 57
P/E Growth Rating: 70
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 76
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: -14 (-100 ... +100)
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WBADaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of drug store services

Industry DrugstoreChains

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Drugstore Chains
Address
108 Wilmot Road
Phone
+1 847 315-3700
Employees
331000
Web
https://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com
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WBA and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor tells us that WBA and YI have been poorly correlated (+25% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that WBA and YI's prices will move in lockstep.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To WBA
1D Price
Change %
WBA100%
-2.47%
YI - WBA
25%
Poorly correlated
-2.92%
RADCQ - WBA
25%
Poorly correlated
+36.00%
MDVLQ - WBA
24%
Poorly correlated
N/A
PETS - WBA
23%
Poorly correlated
-1.16%
LFMD - WBA
22%
Poorly correlated
-0.97%
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