GET DAILY SIGNALSWatsco (WSO): Q1 2026 Earnings Preview Amid Seasonal Challenges and Margin Resilience
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of $1.49 billion, down from $1.53 billion in Q1 2025.
- Consensus EPS estimate is $1.69, a decline from $1.93 reported last year, amid seasonal weakness.
- Watsco's stock has faced pressure post recent misses, down nearly 10% since Q4 2025 earnings.
- First quarter is seasonally soft for HVAC distributors due to lower replacement activity.
- Investors watching gross margins after record full-year 2025 expansion to 28.0%.
- Earnings set for release April 28, 2026, before market open, with conference call at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As the largest North American distributor of HVAC/R equipment and supplies, Watsco (WSO) is approaching its Q1 2026 earnings in a testing environment. The company delivered full-year 2025 revenue of $7.24 billion, a 5% drop year-over-year, yet it posted record gross margins of 28.0% thanks to effective pricing and efficiency measures. In Q4 2025, revenue fell 10% to $1.58 billion, with EPS coming in at $1.68 against expectations of $1.94, which sent the stock down nearly 10% since that February 17, 2026, release. With HVAC equipment volumes still soft and refrigerant transitions ongoing, this report will offer insights into demand recovery and margin durability—key for those following the $74 billion fragmented HVAC/R market, where WSO commands an 18-20% share.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's view for Q1 2026 calls for revenue of $1.49 billion, a 2.6% decline from $1.53 billion in the prior-year quarter, according to 11 analysts. Consensus EPS sits at $1.69, down 12.4% from $1.93 a year ago, based on 10 analysts, with estimates ranging from $1.35 to $1.86 for EPS and $1.46 billion to $1.55 billion for sales. Watsco hasn't provided formal guidance, but seasonal trends consistently mark Q1 as the weakest period for HVAC replacements.
From what I see, the pattern of misses is concerning: WSO has fallen short on EPS for four straight quarters—Q4 2025 (-11%), Q3 2025 (-7%), Q2 2025 (-6%), and Q1 2025 (-14%). I'll be paying close attention to gross profit margins, which stood at 28.1% in Q1 2025, HVAC equipment sales (67% of revenue and down 1% last Q1 excluding acquisitions), and operating cash flow. The stock tends to swing post-earnings, as seen in Q4 when volume declines tied to A2L refrigerant shifts drove the reaction.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment remains cautious heading into these results after four consecutive EPS misses and Q4's 13% drop in HVAC equipment sales. WSO shares are down nearly 10% since the Q4 release, lagging the S&P 500. Implied volatility points to a potential ±7% move, in line with recent patterns. On the risk side, high interest rates are still dampening residential replacements, alongside A2L transition costs, though continued margin gains could provide a buffer. Analysts hold a moderate buy rating with an average price target of $416, suggesting room for upside.
AI Screener: My Go-To Tool for Efficient Research
In my analysis, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks like WSO against peers using technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals. It scans thousands of stocks and ETFs with customizable filters for industry, market cap, indicators, and more, surfacing trade ideas and opportunities far faster than manual methods. This has become essential for my data-driven approach, and I also checked it here to gauge how WSO stacks up in the HVAC space.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Post-Q1, attention will turn to management's take on HVAC demand against economic pressures. Residential equipment, which makes up 67% of sales, softened in 2025 from high rates and refrigerant shifts—stabilization in this area stands out as crucial.
Gross margins continue to shine after reaching a record 28.0% for full-year 2025, fueled by pricing discipline and product mix. One thing I'll monitor is inventory progress, as Q4 hit reduction goals, along with cash flow that reached $570 million annually despite lower sales. The debt-free balance sheet bolsters WSO's buy-and-build approach, including 12 acquisitions since 2019 that added $1.6 billion in sales.
Looking ahead, potential rate cuts could lift housing activity, while Sunbelt expansion and tech upgrades across 690 locations offer tailwinds. Q2, the seasonally strongest quarter, may signal recovery if equipment sales pick up. Keep an eye on SG&A discipline and the dividend, which saw a 10% hike to an annual rate of $13.20.
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WSO in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026
WSO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 31 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WSO as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WSO just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where WSO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The 10-day moving average for WSO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +4.52% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WSO advanced for three days, in 238 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WSO moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 38 of 55 cases where WSO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WSO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
WSO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WSO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.193) is normal, around the industry mean (4.173). P/E Ratio (26.057) is within average values for comparable stocks, (2.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.199) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.448) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.587) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. WSO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a distributer of central air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment
Industry ElectronicsDistributors
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