What Happens If Oil Hits $100 per Barrel?
Since crude oil prices have surged more than 25% since the beginning of the year, optimistic investors are betting a barrel of oil could cross the $100/barrel mark by year-end.
Impending U.S. sanctions against Iran, coupled with bottlenecks in the U.S. shale industry and the anticipated collapse of Venezuela's economy, have many energy market analysts contemplating an abrupt supply shock -- which in turn could push oil prices higher.
There are several investment implications of higher oil, which could affect everything from consumer spending to Emerging Markets (which rely heavily on imports). The International Monetary Fund believes the global economy could feel the impact as well, as they downgraded the global economic forecast for 2018 and 2019 by 0.2% points as a result of higher prices.
But perhaps the most relevant sector to watch will be drilling, exploration, and production in the oil and gas sector. Check out some of the related portfolios below for trade ideas.
DUK sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
DUK saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on May 02, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 40 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 11, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DUK as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
DUK moved below its 50-day moving average on May 16, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DUK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 19, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DUK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for DUK entered a downward trend on June 02, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DUK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DUK advanced for three days, in of 361 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
DUK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.461) is normal, around the industry mean (1.723). P/E Ratio (18.382) is within average values for comparable stocks, (42.819). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.702) is also within normal values, averaging (2.871). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.379) is also within normal values, averaging (3.348).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DUK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a company which engages in electric power and gas distribution operations and other energy services
Industry ElectricUtilities
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with CMS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then CMS could also see price increases.
