What Is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?
Has the mystery of wild swing oscillations for the bitcoin price been solved? A very interesting study published by the scientists from Yale University, Professor Aleh Tsyvinski and economics Ph.D. candidate Yukun Liu claims that there are “good and bad times” to buy and sell bitcoins.
There has been thousands and thousands of scientific (and not so scientific) studies on the predictors of the stock market starting with simple moving averages and ending with the correlation between winning teams in Super Bowl and the behavior of S&P 500. However, this study is quite different. While the past performance, as we all know, is not a guarantee of future results, these scientists have discovered two non-trivial statistical phenomena:
1. The “momentum” effect. This is rather simple: if the price of the bitcoin increased for one week very sharply, it will continue to increase next week; the same is true for the price movements in the opposite directions.
2. The “investor attention effect”. More searches on Google are done for the term “bitcoin”, sharper the increase in price. And, for example, the searches for “bitcoin hack” predict a decrease in price. The correlation between such searches is far from insignificant.
Contributor
Serhii Bondarenko is an AI-focused trading strategist and financial markets analyst specializing in the development and application of AI trading bots and autonomous trading agents. His work combines technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and quantitative research to identify market patterns, forecast price movements, and analyze liquidity, volatility, and correlations across global stock markets. Serhii actively publishes market insights, forecasts, and trading frameworks on platforms such as Investing.com and Finextra, with a strong focus on AI-driven decision-making and next-generation algorithmic trading. His research aims to bridge the gap between traditional trading methodologies and advanced artificial intelligence, helping traders and investors navigate complex and rapidly evolving market conditions.
BTC.X sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for BTC.X moved above the 200-day moving average on September 08, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 03, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BTC.X as a result. In 42 of 145 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 29%.
Following a +2.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in 124 of 424 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 29%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 113 of 380 cases where BTC.X Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 30%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BTC.X moved out of overbought territory on October 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 11 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 25%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 24 of 92 cases where BTC.X's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 26%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BTC.X turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 66 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 16 of the 66 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 24%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 30%.
BTC.X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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