Has the mystery of wild swing oscillations for the bitcoin price been solved? A very interesting study published by the scientists from Yale University, Professor Aleh Tsyvinski and economics Ph.D. candidate Yukun Liu claims that there are “good and bad times” to buy and sell bitcoins.
There has been thousands and thousands of scientific (and not so scientific) studies on the predictors of the stock market starting with simple moving averages and ending with the correlation between winning teams in Super Bowl and the behavior of S&P 500. However, this study is quite different. While the past performance, as we all know, is not a guarantee of future results, these scientists have discovered two non-trivial statistical phenomena:
1. The “momentum” effect. This is rather simple: if the price of the bitcoin increased for one week very sharply, it will continue to increase next week; the same is true for the price movements in the opposite directions.
2. The “investor attention effect”. More searches on Google are done for the term “bitcoin”, sharper the increase in price. And, for example, the searches for “bitcoin hack” predict a decrease in price. The correlation between such searches is far from insignificant.
BTC.X saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 16, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 58 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BTC.X moved out of overbought territory on March 15, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 60 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 25, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BTC.X as a result. In of 133 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in of 443 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
BTC.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 438 cases where BTC.X Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows