GET DAILY SIGNALSWhat Is the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?
Has the mystery of wild swing oscillations for the bitcoin price been solved? A very interesting study published by the scientists from Yale University, Professor Aleh Tsyvinski and economics Ph.D. candidate Yukun Liu claims that there are “good and bad times” to buy and sell bitcoins.
There has been thousands and thousands of scientific (and not so scientific) studies on the predictors of the stock market starting with simple moving averages and ending with the correlation between winning teams in Super Bowl and the behavior of S&P 500. However, this study is quite different. While the past performance, as we all know, is not a assure of future results, these scientists have discovered two non-trivial statistical phenomena:
1. The “momentum” effect. This is rather simple: if the price of the bitcoin increased for one week very sharply, it will continue to increase next week; the same is true for the price movements in the opposite directions.
2. The “investor attention effect”. More searches on Google are done for the term “bitcoin”, sharper the increase in price. And, for example, the searches for “bitcoin hack” predict a decrease in price. The correlation between such searches is far from insignificant.
Contributor
Serhii Bondarenko is an AI-focused trading strategist and financial markets analyst specializing in the development and application of AI trading bots and autonomous trading agents. His work combines technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and quantitative research to identify market patterns, forecast price movements, and analyze liquidity, volatility, and correlations across global stock markets. Serhii actively publishes market insights, forecasts, and trading frameworks on platforms such as Investing.com and Finextra, with a strong focus on AI-driven decision-making and next-generation algorithmic trading. His research aims to bridge the gap between traditional trading methodologies and advanced artificial intelligence, helping traders and investors navigate complex and rapidly evolving market conditions.
BTC.X in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 25, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BTC.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 25, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 32%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BTC.X as a result. In 43 of 144 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 30%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BTC.X turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 67 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 16 of the 67 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 24%.
BTC.X moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 30%.
The Aroon Indicator for BTC.X entered a downward trend on November 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BTC.X's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 8 of 38 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 21%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in 123 of 424 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 29%.
BTC.X may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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