Has the mystery of wild swing oscillations for the bitcoin price been solved? A very interesting study published by the scientists from Yale University, Professor Aleh Tsyvinski and economics Ph.D. candidate Yukun Liu claims that there are “good and bad times” to buy and sell bitcoins.
There has been thousands and thousands of scientific (and not so scientific) studies on the predictors of the stock market starting with simple moving averages and ending with the correlation between winning teams in Super Bowl and the behavior of S&P 500. However, this study is quite different. While the past performance, as we all know, is not a guarantee of future results, these scientists have discovered two non-trivial statistical phenomena:
1. The “momentum” effect. This is rather simple: if the price of the bitcoin increased for one week very sharply, it will continue to increase next week; the same is true for the price movements in the opposite directions.
2. The “investor attention effect”. More searches on Google are done for the term “bitcoin”, sharper the increase in price. And, for example, the searches for “bitcoin hack” predict a decrease in price. The correlation between such searches is far from insignificant.
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where BTC.X advanced for three days, in of 447 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 28, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BTC.X as a result. In of 127 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC.X just turned positive on May 27, 2023. Looking at past instances where BTC.X's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
BTC.X moved below its 50-day moving average on May 07, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BTC.X crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 10, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BTC.X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
BTC.X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 28, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BTC.X entered a downward trend on May 19, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows