Market declines are a reality of investing. No one can avoid them all, unless you stay in cash all your life (which is still a money-losing strategy, if you consider the impact of inflation).
The throes of a market downturn can be emotionally taxing to investors, but a market corrections should not mean an invitation to panic. Experienced investors know how to mitigate emotional decision-making during market sell-offs with a measured, rational approach that rides-out temporary pullbacks.
First, creating and sticking with an investment plan can help investors weather the storm of a sell-off. When plans are constructed with care – accounting for present and future goals, risk tolerance, and other factors – investors tend to avoid making reactionary decisions with negative ramifications. If you’ve worked with an advisor to select an asset allocation that addresses your long-term objectives and your tolerance for risk, then just remember that your asset allocation also accounts for the natural ups-and-downs of investing. It comes with the territory.
Diversification provides a vital safeguard against negative market behavior. Stocks as an asset class have reliably delivered solid returns over time, but they’re also inherently volatile. Less volatile assets like bonds may not skyrocket in value, but their (generally speaking) low correlation to the stock market and their ability to post steady or slightly positive returns in down equity markets makes them a great way to hedge against losses and, consequently, an important part of any portfolio where risk tolerance is a factor.
Timing is crucial when investing, but that doesn’t mean trying to time the market when it’s in a volatile patch. Picking and choosing when to be active based on downturns can mean missing out on large gains. Data shows that every downturn on the S&P 500 of 15% or more since 1929 has resulted in a recovery – to the tune of a nearly 55% average return in the year following a decline. This means a real chance to profit for those brave enough to endure the down cycles.
While timing can lead to big gains, earnings are typically maximized by a patient, long-term approach. An impending bear market may seem catastrophic in the short term, but investors who can see beyond immediate events and maintain perspective are usually rewarded over time – after all, the S&P 500 had a mean return of 10.43% over 10-year periods from 1937 to 2014.
Even healthy markets have downturns, but corrections and new highs have consistently followed throughout history. Staying rational and focusing on a well-planned investment strategy means viewing sell-offs for what history indicates they are – a frustrating, but temporary, market behavior portending better things to come.
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The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 47 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 68 cases where SPY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on October 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 11, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 63 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 374 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 458 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Category LargeBlend