What to Expect from Stock Markets after “Liberation Day” April 2, 2025
In this video we present our view on the current market conditions after April 2d, 2025.
https://tickeron.com/app/academy/video/792
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I728kuQUfis&t=4s
The convergence of low liquidity, diminished labor participation, and high interest rates suggests that traditional buy-and-hold strategies may yield only modest long-term returns. With Trump now serving as the current president, his policies—including tariffs reminiscent of those that disrupted markets in the past—continue to shape the economic environment. In such conditions, active trading strategies, particularly those emphasizing hedging and risk management, may offer superior returns compared to a passive approach.
We will cover the following topics
Stock Market Uncertainty
Stock Market Valuations Now vs. Dot Com Bubble
Technical Analysis for S&P 500
Chances of Recession
Stock Market Expectations for 2025
Leading Indicators
AI Bubble of 2023 and 2024
Making a Case for Trading vs. Investing
As we are all in 2025, the investment landscape is poised for significant transformation.
Disclaimers and Limitation
QQQ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 01, 2025
QQQ moved above its 50-day moving average on May 01, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 21, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on QQQ as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QQQ just turned positive on April 14, 2025. Looking at past instances where QQQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for QQQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 06, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QQQ advanced for three days, in of 380 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 385 cases where QQQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for QQQ moved below the 200-day moving average on April 14, 2025. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QQQ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
QQQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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