Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of around $767 million to $875 million, up over 60% year-over-year driven by higher gold and silver prices.
- Consensus EPS forecast ranges from $1.15 to $1.22 per share, reflecting more than 100% growth from Q1 2025's $0.56.
- Production projected at approximately 200,000 GEOs (gold equivalent ounces), a 34% increase from prior year, within 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs.
- Sales volume expected near 156,000 GEOs, supported by elevated realized prices amid strong precious metals market.
- Investors watching updates on new streams like Antamina and ramp-ups at Blackwater, alongside Produced But Not Yet Delivered (PBND) inventory levels.
- Historical stock reactions post-earnings show average 0.8% gain on day one, with positive bias in 75% of recent reports.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As someone who follows precious metals streamers closely, I see WPM's low-cost streaming model as a smart way to gain exposure to gold and silver production from partner mines without the operational risks of direct mining. This Q1 2026 report, coming after market close on May 7, feels particularly important right now with gold prices above $3,000 per ounce and silver near $40. After WPM's record 2025 full-year revenue of $2.3 billion and production that exceeded guidance at 690,000 GEOs, I'm looking for signs that this momentum will hold. One thing that stands out is the ramping contributions from assets like Blackwater and the new Antamina silver stream that starts April 1. Strong numbers here could reinforce WPM's trajectory toward 50% production growth to 1.2 million GEOs by 2030, making it even more attractive in this volatile commodity environment.
Earnings Expectations
From what I see in the consensus estimates, Q1 2026 should deliver solid results for WPM. Revenue is pegged at $767 million according to Zacks (that's 63% YoY growth from Q1 2025's $470 million), while MarketBeat has it at $875 million and Yahoo at $865 million. On the EPS side, forecasts run from $1.15 (Zacks, up 109%) to $1.22 (MarketBeat, Public.com), improving on Q1 2025's $0.56 and matching the record Q4 2025 beat of $1.22.
Production models point to around 201,000 attributable GEOs, a 34% YoY increase that fits within the full-year 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs (11% above 2025 levels). Sales might come in a bit lower at about 156,000 GEOs, but with gold at elevated prices and silver up sharply, realized prices should boost margins. I'm paying close attention to any guidance updates, the PBND inventory (which stood at 2.5 months at the end of 2025 and is due for a rebuild), and cash flow from that $1.2 billion balance. WPM has a track record of beating EPS estimates—like in Q4 2025 with $1.22 versus the expected $0.91—which has often led to gains after earnings.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into this Q1 report is cautiously optimistic, supported by 2025's records and the ongoing gold rally. WPM shares are up about 15% YTD as of early May 2026, doing better than broader markets thanks to precious metals strength. Looking at history, the stock has moved positively after 9 of the last 12 earnings reports (average +0.8% on day one), though Q4 2025 dipped -2% despite the beat, likely due to guidance digestion. Risks to watch include disruptions at partner mines like Salobo or Peñasquito, PBND drawdowns, or softer guidance against high expectations. In my view, a beat on GEOs with reaffirmed 2026 outlook could drive upside, while lower sales volume might weigh on the shares.
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Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1, the focus will be on executing within the 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs, with about 55% weighted to the second half due to sequencing and ramps. The Antamina silver stream—adding roughly 70,000 GEOs annually starting in April—represents a key milestone, along with ongoing progress at Blackwater, Goose, Hemlo, and Mineral Park.
I'll be tracking the GEO production breakdown (gold 400,000-430,000 oz, silver 27-29 Moz) and the PBND rebuild toward 3 months, which affects sales timing. Cash generation stayed robust in 2025 at $1.9 billion in operating cash flow, enough to fund the $4.3 billion Antamina upfront through cash, debt, and revolver, with a return to net cash position targeted in about a year at current spot prices.
Longer term, hitting 50% growth to 1.2 million GEOs by 2030 depends on development assets like Koné, Fenix, and Platreef, plus pre-development projects such as Spring Valley and Copper World. This is important because it underscores the need to monitor commodity prices, partner mine performance, and potential M&A for new streams—WPM prefers debt over dilution for accretive deals. Balanced costs and margins will remain critical in these volatile markets.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
WPM's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WPM moved out of overbought territory on August 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 31 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WPM as a result. In 49 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for WPM turned negative on September 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
WPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WPM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for WPM entered a downward trend on October 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WPM advanced for three days, in 250 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
WPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.357) is normal, around the industry mean (3.888). P/E Ratio (30.084) is within average values for comparable stocks, (46.261). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.400) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. WPM's P/S Ratio (21.053) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
an explorer of gold and silvers
Industry PreciousMetals
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