Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 revenue of around $767 million to $875 million, up over 60% year-over-year driven by higher gold and silver prices.
- Consensus EPS forecast ranges from $1.15 to $1.22 per share, reflecting more than 100% growth from Q1 2025's $0.56.
- Production projected at approximately 200,000 GEOs (gold equivalent ounces), a 34% increase from prior year, within 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs.
- Sales volume expected near 156,000 GEOs, supported by elevated realized prices amid strong precious metals market.
- Investors watching updates on new streams like Antamina and ramp-ups at Blackwater, alongside Produced But Not Yet Delivered (PBND) inventory levels.
- Historical stock reactions post-earnings show average 0.8% gain on day one, with positive bias in 75% of recent reports.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As someone who follows precious metals streamers closely, I see WPM's low-cost streaming model as a smart way to gain exposure to gold and silver production from partner mines without the operational risks of direct mining. This Q1 2026 report, coming after market close on May 7, feels particularly important right now with gold prices above $3,000 per ounce and silver near $40. After WPM's record 2025 full-year revenue of $2.3 billion and production that exceeded guidance at 690,000 GEOs, I'm looking for signs that this momentum will hold. One thing that stands out is the ramping contributions from assets like Blackwater and the new Antamina silver stream that starts April 1. Strong numbers here could reinforce WPM's trajectory toward 50% production growth to 1.2 million GEOs by 2030, making it even more attractive in this volatile commodity environment.
Earnings Expectations
From what I see in the consensus estimates, Q1 2026 should deliver solid results for WPM. Revenue is pegged at $767 million according to Zacks (that's 63% YoY growth from Q1 2025's $470 million), while MarketBeat has it at $875 million and Yahoo at $865 million. On the EPS side, forecasts run from $1.15 (Zacks, up 109%) to $1.22 (MarketBeat, Public.com), improving on Q1 2025's $0.56 and matching the record Q4 2025 beat of $1.22.
Production models point to around 201,000 attributable GEOs, a 34% YoY increase that fits within the full-year 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs (11% above 2025 levels). Sales might come in a bit lower at about 156,000 GEOs, but with gold at elevated prices and silver up sharply, realized prices should boost margins. I'm paying close attention to any guidance updates, the PBND inventory (which stood at 2.5 months at the end of 2025 and is due for a rebuild), and cash flow from that $1.2 billion balance. WPM has a track record of beating EPS estimates—like in Q4 2025 with $1.22 versus the expected $0.91—which has often led to gains after earnings.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into this Q1 report is cautiously optimistic, supported by 2025's records and the ongoing gold rally. WPM shares are up about 15% YTD as of early May 2026, doing better than broader markets thanks to precious metals strength. Looking at history, the stock has moved positively after 9 of the last 12 earnings reports (average +0.8% on day one), though Q4 2025 dipped -2% despite the beat, likely due to guidance digestion. Risks to watch include disruptions at partner mines like Salobo or Peñasquito, PBND drawdowns, or softer guidance against high expectations. In my view, a beat on GEOs with reaffirmed 2026 outlook could drive upside, while lower sales volume might weigh on the shares.
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Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
After Q1, the focus will be on executing within the 2026 guidance of 860,000-940,000 GEOs, with about 55% weighted to the second half due to sequencing and ramps. The Antamina silver stream—adding roughly 70,000 GEOs annually starting in April—represents a key milestone, along with ongoing progress at Blackwater, Goose, Hemlo, and Mineral Park.
I'll be tracking the GEO production breakdown (gold 400,000-430,000 oz, silver 27-29 Moz) and the PBND rebuild toward 3 months, which affects sales timing. Cash generation stayed robust in 2025 at $1.9 billion in operating cash flow, enough to fund the $4.3 billion Antamina upfront through cash, debt, and revolver, with a return to net cash position targeted in about a year at current spot prices.
Longer term, hitting 50% growth to 1.2 million GEOs by 2030 depends on development assets like Koné, Fenix, and Platreef, plus pre-development projects such as Spring Valley and Copper World. This is important because it underscores the need to monitor commodity prices, partner mine performance, and potential M&A for new streams—WPM prefers debt over dilution for accretive deals. Balanced costs and margins will remain critical in these volatile markets.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
WPM's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WPM turned positive on July 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where WPM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 24, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WPM as a result. In of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
WPM moved above its 50-day moving average on August 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WPM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WPM advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 281 cases where WPM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 21 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WPM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
WPM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.396) is normal, around the industry mean (4.442). P/E Ratio (35.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (50.380). WPM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (2.505). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. WPM's P/S Ratio (22.624) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (7.588).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
an explorer of gold and silvers
Industry PreciousMetals
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