When is the Next Crisis Coming?
It has been now almost ten years since the last serious financial crisis. We are not talking about the relatively minor pullbacks in the stock market, of course. Is the financial system stable now? When and why the next crisis can come? What might be the major causes for such an event? Oh, if we only knew…
However, one of the brightest minds on the Wall Street, Dr. Marko Kolanovic (his Ph.D. is in theoretical physics) warns about possibility of such an event (it is part of a very detailed and substantial 168 pages report published by JPMorgan).
He thinks that computerized trading and the abundance of passive investments set up the stage for a major calamity. Due to the speed of the trading algorithms, the liquidity in certain underlying instruments can disappear very quickly, and this will lead to the well-known phenomenon of sharp drops in the indices. A huge number of institutional and retail investors own the same positions either directly or via ETF’s and other instruments. If for some reason they all decide to sell even one position (think about Tesla’s CEO interview last week), this might lead to a complete collapse of the market.
Almost all trading algorithms stop trading during very volatile markets, and this might completely dry out the market. The banks will have to step in, the government will step in, a lot of pension funds will collapse, retail investors will lose their savings and this might lead to social unrest. Dr. Kolanovic does not necessarily predicts that but warns about the signs appearing on the horizon. Dr. Harari in his book “Home Deus” is asking a question about the soul and consciences of computer algorithms. They have none! Home Sapiens do, and their reaction to such market events might be very disruptive.
Once again, this is not a prediction but rather a food for thought.
SPY's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on July 08, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 140 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 140 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on June 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on July 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on June 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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