Why 10-year bond rate is important?
It is the second time in a couple of months that the 10-yr Treasury rate crossed 3% mark. Why is this so important? There are several reasons for that.
When most of the analysts establish the price targets for a company, they use the so-called discounted cash flow model (DCF). The idea behind their calculations is indeed very simple: they try to predict the earnings of the company for the foreseeable future and then discount a cash flow by the interest rate. It this interest rate that determines the “discount” factor, and greater the interest rate – greater the discount factor, and therefore smaller the price target becomes.
Of course, the increase in 10-years Treasuries rate defines the overall interest rate environment for corporate bonds, and while this dependence is not that simple, 10-years Treasury rate has a direct impact on the allocation to fixed income securities by large market players (pension funds, insurance companies). As the interest rates rise, many such funds shift their assets from a stock market to fixed income securities.
Both these factors will have a definite negative impact on the behavior of the stock market and combined with the expected (and announced) two additional interest raise increases this year, the market can experience a significant downturn. In no way, it is a prediction – but please watch this rate carefully.
Momentum Indicator for SPY turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SPY saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 28, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 73 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 73 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on November 28, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on November 28, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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