Why 10-year bond rate is important?
It is the second time in a couple of months that the 10-yr Treasury rate crossed 3% mark. Why is this so important? There are several reasons for that.
When most of the analysts establish the price targets for a company, they use the so-called discounted cash flow model (DCF). The idea behind their calculations is indeed very simple: they try to predict the earnings of the company for the foreseeable future and then discount a cash flow by the interest rate. It this interest rate that determines the “discount” factor, and greater the interest rate – greater the discount factor, and therefore smaller the price target becomes.
Of course, the increase in 10-years Treasuries rate defines the overall interest rate environment for corporate bonds, and while this dependence is not that simple, 10-years Treasury rate has a direct impact on the allocation to fixed income securities by large market players (pension funds, insurance companies). As the interest rates rise, many such funds shift their assets from a stock market to fixed income securities.
Both these factors will have a definite negative impact on the behavior of the stock market and combined with the expected (and announced) two additional interest raise increases this year, the market can experience a significant downturn. In no way, it is a prediction – but please watch this rate carefully.
SPY in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on November 05, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on November 26, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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