Why I Like Big Banks in 2021
I like big banks (and I cannot lie). I think 2021 could be a solid year for some of the leaders in banking, especially those that are well-capitalized and well-managed. Here's why.
U.S. Financials had a rough 2020, relatively speaking. The sector was down -1.7% for the year, which is very weak compared to the broad S&P 500 (+18.4) and the Technology sector (+43.8). Financials shares have been dragged by rock-bottom interest rates and a flattish yield curve, but I think some upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve could improve the profit picture for major banks in 2021. The 10-year U.S. Treasury has been moving higher and just crossed 1% for the first time since March 2020. I think it will keep moving higher in 2021.
The wall of liquidity building up in the capital markets—due to direct payments from the federal government and hyper-accommodative monetary policy at the Fed—has led to M2 money supply rising at an unprecedented 25% year-over-year rate. This pace is much faster than M2 money supply growth during the inflationary period of the 1970s.
The implication is that rising M2 money supply could give way to inflation in the not-too-distant future, which could start placing upward pressure on interest rates. Upward pressure on interest rates could widen net interest margins at major banks, meaning better profits in the year ahead. I like owning areas of the economy with accelerating earnings.
Below, Tickeron's A.I. runs an analysis of Major Banks, where investors can find trading ideas for some of the best names in the industry.
GS's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GS turned positive on April 23, 2024. Looking at past instances where GS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GS as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GS moved above its 50-day moving average on April 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GS advanced for three days, in of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 276 cases where GS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GS moved out of overbought territory on April 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. GS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.270) is normal, around the industry mean (5.433). P/E Ratio (18.081) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.241). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.284) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.091) is also within normal values, averaging (105.216).
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Industry description
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a provider of investment banking, securities and asset management services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers