GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Hormel Foods (HRL) Stock Down -8.77% Today?
Key Takeaways
- HRL shares fell 8.77% in Thursday's session after the company reported fiscal third-quarter results and cut its full-year sales outlook.
- The primary catalyst was a top-line miss: revenue came in at $2.96 billion versus roughly $3.04 billion expected, down 2.4% year over year.
- Hormel lowered its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to $12.1 billion–$12.2 billion, down from a prior range of $12.2 billion–$12.5 billion.
- Weakness was concentrated in the retail segment, where volumes fell 9%, and in international operations, which absorbed a non-cash impairment charge tied to an Indonesian investment.
- The company did beat on adjusted earnings per share ($0.37 vs. $0.35) and raised its adjusted EPS outlook, but investors focused on the deteriorating revenue picture.
- Traders are now watching whether Hormel's portfolio-reshaping efforts can restore consistent volume growth into fiscal 2027.
Opening Summary
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL), the Minnesota-based global branded food company best known for brands including SPAM, Skippy, Jennie-O, Planters, and Applegate, saw its stock fall sharply on Thursday. Shares closed the prior session at $23.71 and traded down roughly 8.77% to around $21.63 after the company's fiscal 2026 third-quarter earnings release. The sell-off was driven by a revenue miss and a reduction in full-year sales guidance, which overshadowed a modest beat on adjusted earnings per share.
Earnings Results and Revenue Miss
Hormel reported third-quarter net sales of $2.96 billion, a 2.4% decline from the year-ago period and below analyst expectations of roughly $3.04 billion. The shortfall was attributed to portfolio-shaping actions, lower commodity-based pricing in portions of the business, and a consumer environment that remains under pressure. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.37, two cents above the $0.35 consensus, but the earnings-driven move was clearly negative as markets zeroed in on the deteriorating top line.
Guidance Cut Weighs on Sentiment
The most damaging element of the report was the company's lowered outlook. Hormel now expects fiscal 2026 net sales of $12.1 billion to $12.2 billion, down from its prior forecast of $12.2 billion to $12.5 billion, and narrowed its organic net sales growth expectation to 1%–2% from 1%–4% previously. Management cited the current external environment and the anticipated fourth-quarter impact of the divestiture of its Brazil operations under the Ceratti brand. In a silver lining, Hormel raised and narrowed its adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $1.45–$1.51, from $1.43–$1.51, reflecting confidence in margin execution even as top-line growth remains challenged.
Retail and International Segments Under Pressure
The retail segment, Hormel's largest revenue driver, posted a roughly 4% sales decline with volumes down 9%, pressured by lower commodity turkey volumes, the exit from select private label snack nuts, and cautious consumer spending. The international segment was the weakest link, with GAAP segment profit falling sharply on a non-cash impairment charge related to a minority investment in Indonesia; organic net sales declined 4% and volumes fell 11%. Foodservice remained a bright spot, delivering its 12th consecutive quarter of organic net sales growth, but it was not enough to offset weakness elsewhere.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline in HRL shares reflected elevated trading volume as investors repriced the stock following the earnings release and guidance revision. The move was largely company-specific, tied to Hormel's own revenue trajectory, though it also echoed a broader theme across the packaged-food sector: subdued consumer demand amid persistent inflation and higher living costs. Peer names in the sector have faced similar volume and pricing headwinds in recent quarters. The stock's slide pushed shares well below their recent trading range, breaking through short-term support levels as selling accelerated.
What Comes Next for HRL
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether Hormel's portfolio transformation—including the Brazil divestiture, the completed exit from Justin's, and the planned exit from whole-bird turkey—can deliver sustainable top-line growth once these transitions are lapped. Key areas of attention include the trajectory of retail volumes, the resilience of the foodservice segment, and management's execution under newly appointed leadership, including incoming CFO Ash Bhumbla and CEO-elect John Ghingo. Risks remain tied to consumer spending, commodity input costs, and elevated logistics and fuel expenses, which could continue to pressure margins even as the company narrows its earnings outlook.
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Momentum Indicator for HRL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HRL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 42 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 51%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
HRL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HRL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 5 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 36%.
Following a +2.73% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HRL advanced for three days, in 134 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HRL moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for HRL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HRL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
HRL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HRL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HRL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.492) is normal, around the industry mean (6.194). HRL has a moderately high P/E Ratio (34.290) as compared to the industry average of (7.022). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.405) is also within normal values, averaging (8.458). Dividend Yield (0.055) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.942) is also within normal values, averaging (5.003).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HRL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of meat products and other prepared foods
Industry FoodMajorDiversified
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