75% Chance of Downtrend: SolarWinds (SWI) RSI Indicator and Bollinger Bands Analysis
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75% Chance of Downtrend: SolarWinds (SWI) RSI Indicator and Bollinger Bands Analysis
SolarWinds (SWI) has recently shown signs of a potential shift in its price trend. The RSI Indicator, which measures overbought and oversold conditions, left the overbought zone on June 21, 2023. This suggests that SWI's price could be transitioning from an uptrend to a downtrend. Traders are advised to consider selling the stock or exploring put options as part of their investment strategy.
Analyzing historical data, A.I.dvisor found 24 similar cases where SWI's RSI Indicator left the overbought zone. Out of these instances, 18 led to successful outcomes, resulting in a 75% chance of success in predicting a price decline. This statistical insight provides traders with valuable information to evaluate the potential risks associated with SWI.
Furthermore, SWI's price movement has broken above its higher Bollinger Band on June 07, 2023. Typically, when a stock surpasses the upper band, it is expected to retreat towards the middle band, indicating a potential price decrease. Traders should exercise caution and consider selling the stock or exploring put options in light of this observation.
Based on the analysis of 35 similar instances where SWI broke above the upper Bollinger Band, 30 cases resulted in subsequent price declines. This implies an 86% chance of a successful downward move. These statistics can assist traders in making informed decisions regarding their SWI investments.
It is important to note that while historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole basis for investment decisions. Market conditions are subject to various factors, and individual analysis, risk assessment, and professional advice are crucial when making investment choices.
SWI's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 10 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SWI advanced for three days, in of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SWI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 06, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SWI as a result. In of 109 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SWI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 06, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SWI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 06, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SWI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SWI entered a downward trend on September 22, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.148) is normal, around the industry mean (21.049). P/E Ratio (16.949) is within average values for comparable stocks, (152.713). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.638). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.088) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.148) is also within normal values, averaging (74.081).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SWI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SWI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a developer of network management software solutions and provides information technology support services
Industry PackagedSoftware
SWI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWI has been loosely correlated with INFA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SWI jumps, then INFA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SWI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWI | 100% | -0.10% | ||
| INFA - SWI | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.87% | ||
| LSPD - SWI | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.40% | ||
| AMPL - SWI | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.08% | ||
| BL - SWI | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.14% | ||
| QLYS - SWI | 56% Loosely correlated | +1.37% | ||
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